Filing Flows › Apple (AAPL) › Takeover & LBO
Is Apple (AAPL) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($449.10 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $229.68 a share (−34% against today's $345.46). At $6.63T it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 2.1% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.42× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $449.10 | today's $345.46 plus 30% |
| × shares | 14,720.3 million | |
| = Equity value | $6.61T | |
| + Debt refinanced | $80.1B | |
| − Cash | $56.7B | |
| = Enterprise value | $6.63T | 38.7× EBITDA of $171.5B |
| Fees | $132.7B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $943.2B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $5.82T | 86% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $517.1B | $185.2B | $72.2B | $82.7B | $860.5B |
| Year 2 | $552.0B | $197.7B | $65.8B | $98.2B | $762.3B |
| Year 3 | $582.4B | $208.6B | $58.3B | $113.5B | $648.8B |
| Year 4 | $607.2B | $217.4B | $49.6B | $128.2B | $520.6B |
| Year 5 | $625.4B | $224.0B | $39.8B | $142.2B | $378.4B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 29.8× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $6.67T | |
| − Debt left | $378.4B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $6.29T | |
| Money multiple | 1.08× | on $5.82T put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 1.6% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $345.46; the IRR reaches 20% at $229.68 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $380.01 | 5.6% |
| 20% | $414.55 | 3.5% |
| 30% | $449.10 | 1.6% |
| 40% | $483.64 | −0.2% |
| 50% | $518.19 | −1.7% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $478.8B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $171.5B | 35.8% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $13.4B | |
| Capital spending | $9.0B | |
| Debt | $80.1B | |
| Cash | $56.7B | |
| Share price | $345.46 | on Nov 5, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 17% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Apple would cost about $449.10 a share, $6.61T for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 12% | $386.92 | $5.70T |
| Median | 30% | $449.10 | $6.61T |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 31% | $452.55 | $6.66T |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.1% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.42× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Apple's latest quarter
Apple, Q4 FY26: revenue $114.5B (+12% year over year), operating margin 31.1%, net earnings $30.7B, operating cash flow $28.1B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Apple being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Apple?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($449.10 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $229.68 a share (−34% against today's $345.46). At $6.63T it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of Apple cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Apple would cost about $449.10 a share, $6.61T for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.