Filing Flows › Growth model
One growth model, four levels
Each company's revenue growth, each industry's, each sector's and each theme's is modelled the same way: this quarter's year-on-year growth = a constant + ρ × last quarter's + γ × its parent's growth, fitted on SEC filings with a prior taken from its peers, so a company with few quarters leans on its industry. Every fit is tested out of sample against “growth stays what it was”.
How it scored, one quarter ahead
| Level | Fits | Model error | Naive error | Model better |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sectors | 12 | 2.2% | 2.4% | 9 |
| Industries | 298 | 3.9% | 4.0% | 163 |
| Concepts | 45 | 4.5% | 4.6% | 29 |
| Companies | 3112 | 7.4% | 7.4% | 1616 |
Median error of next-quarter revenue. Data Nov 8, 2026, through Q2 2026.
Sectors
| Latest Y/Y | Next quarter | |
|---|---|---|
| Industrials | +14.9% | +14.9% Q3 2026 |
| Financials | +11.8% | +10.5% Q3 2026 |
| Consumer Discretionary | +8.2% | +9.5% Q3 2026 |
| Technology | +28.0% | +24.1% Q3 2026 |
| Health Care | +8.7% | +9.5% Q3 2026 |
| Consumer Staples | +8.4% | +8.3% Q3 2026 |
| Energy | +48.6% | +44.7% Q3 2026 |
| Utilities | +17.1% | +16.8% Q3 2026 |
| Materials | +8.9% | +11.7% Q3 2026 |
| Communication Services | +3.0% | +5.9% Q3 2026 |
| Real Estate | +12.3% | +14.9% Q3 2026 |
| Other | +3.7% | +11.6% Q3 2026 |
Themes and supply chains
| Latest Y/Y | Next quarter | |
|---|---|---|
| AI data-center capex | +53.8% | +49.4% Q3 2026 |
| AI hosting: neoclouds, miners turned data centers, power | +13.3% | +14.3% Q3 2026 |
| AI revenue: clouds & software | +20.8% | +20.4% Q3 2026 |
| Crypto, stablecoins & miners | +1.7% | +7.2% Q3 2026 |
| Cybersecurity | +26.0% | +26.9% Q3 2026 |
| Defense, drones & government tech | +10.9% | +10.2% Q3 2026 |
| EVs, batteries & lithium | +26.0% | +26.4% Q3 2026 |
| GLP-1 & obesity drugs | +21.5% | +19.3% Q3 2026 |
| Gold & silver miners | +32.2% | +29.4% Q3 2026 |
| Nuclear & uranium | +12.1% | +12.5% Q3 2026 |
| Power grid & electrification | +23.5% | +21.2% Q3 2026 |
| Quantum computing | +244.9% | +165.1% Q3 2026 |
| Robotics & automation | +23.5% | +20.4% Q3 2026 |
| Chip equipment by country (WFE) | +27.2% | +23.9% Q3 2026 |
| Solar & energy storage | +22.9% | +25.9% Q3 2026 |
| Space economy | +10.8% | +13.4% Q3 2026 |