Filing Flows › ABM Industries (ABM) › Takeover & LBO
Is ABM Industries (ABM) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($69.03 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $40.12 a share (−24% against today's $53.10). Historically 3.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.73× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $69.03 | today's $53.10 plus 30% |
| × shares | 59.3 million | |
| = Equity value | $4.1B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $1.7B | |
| − Cash | $110M | |
| = Enterprise value | $5.7B | 13.1× EBITDA of $435M |
| Fees | $114M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $2.4B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $3.4B | 59% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $9.7B | $461M | $183M | $82.3M | $2.3B |
| Year 2 | $10.2B | $485M | $177M | $106M | $2.2B |
| Year 3 | $10.7B | $507M | $169M | $130M | $2.1B |
| Year 4 | $11.1B | $526M | $159M | $154M | $1.9B |
| Year 5 | $11.4B | $542M | $147M | $180M | $1.7B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 11.0× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $5.9B | |
| − Debt left | $1.7B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $4.2B | |
| Money multiple | 1.22× | on $3.4B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 4.1% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $53.10; the IRR reaches 20% at $40.12 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $58.41 | 8.5% |
| 20% | $63.72 | 6.2% |
| 30% | $69.03 | 4.1% |
| 40% | $74.34 | 2.3% |
| 50% | $79.65 | 0.6% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $9.1B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $435M | 4.8% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $113M | |
| Capital spending | $96.1M | |
| Debt | $1.7B | |
| Cash | $110M | |
| Share price | $53.10 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 6.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 25% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, ABM Industries would cost about $74.34 a share, $4.4B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $60.91 | $3.6B |
| Median | 40% | $74.34 | $4.4B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $85.07 | $5.0B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.73× the average). Its figures put it in decile 3 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
ABM Industries' latest quarter
ABM Industries, Q3 FY26: revenue $2.3B (+4% year over year), operating margin 3.9%, net earnings $49.7M, operating cash flow $147M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is ABM Industries being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy ABM Industries?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($69.03 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $40.12 a share (−24% against today's $53.10).
What would a takeover of ABM Industries cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, ABM Industries would cost about $74.34 a share, $4.4B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.