Filing Flows › Acadia Pharmaceuticals (ACAD) › Takeover & LBO
Is Acadia Pharmaceuticals (ACAD) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($26.77 a share) would return about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. Historically 4.1% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.81× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $26.77 | today's $20.59 plus 30% |
| × shares | 175.5 million | |
| = Equity value | $4.7B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $0 | |
| − Cash | $976M | |
| = Enterprise value | $3.7B | 27.5× EBITDA of $135M |
| Fees | $74.4M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $743M | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $3.1B | 80% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.3B | $146M | $56.8M | $53.6M | $689M |
| Year 2 | $1.4B | $156M | $52.7M | $65.7M | $624M |
| Year 3 | $1.5B | $164M | $47.7M | $77.9M | $546M |
| Year 4 | $1.5B | $171M | $41.7M | $90.0M | $456M |
| Year 5 | $1.6B | $176M | $34.9M | $102M | $354M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 19.5× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $3.4B | |
| − Debt left | $354M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $3.1B | |
| Money multiple | 1.01× | on $3.1B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 0.2% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $20.59.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $22.65 | 5.9% |
| 20% | $24.71 | 2.9% |
| 30% | $26.77 | 0.2% |
| 40% | $28.83 | −2.0% |
| 50% | $30.88 | −4.0% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $1.2B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $135M | 11.2% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $12.7M | |
| Capital spending | $15.5M | |
| Debt | $0 | |
| Cash | $976M | |
| Share price | $20.59 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 12% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Acadia Pharmaceuticals would cost about $27.80 a share, $4.9B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 22% | $25.12 | $4.4B |
| Median | 35% | $27.80 | $4.9B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 45% | $29.86 | $5.2B |
The odds, from history
Historically 4.1% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.81× the average). Its figures put it in decile 4 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Acadia Pharmaceuticals' latest quarter
Acadia Pharmaceuticals, Q3 2026: revenue $342M (+23% year over year), operating margin 21.0%, net earnings $53.5M, operating cash flow $11.5M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Acadia Pharmaceuticals being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Acadia Pharmaceuticals?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($26.77 a share) would return about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
What would a takeover of Acadia Pharmaceuticals cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Acadia Pharmaceuticals would cost about $27.80 a share, $4.9B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.