Filing Flows › Accel Entertainment (ACEL) › Takeover & LBO
Is Accel Entertainment (ACEL) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($14.77 a share) would return about 7% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $10.60 a share (−7% against today's $11.36).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $14.77 | today's $11.36 plus 30% |
| × shares | 83.4 million | |
| = Equity value | $1.2B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $566M | |
| − Cash | $294M | |
| = Enterprise value | $1.5B | 8.6× EBITDA of $174M |
| Fees | $30.1M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $959M | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $574M | 37% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.5B | $188M | $73.4M | $16.4M | $943M |
| Year 2 | $1.6B | $201M | $72.1M | $23.9M | $919M |
| Year 3 | $1.7B | $212M | $70.3M | $31.4M | $888M |
| Year 4 | $1.8B | $221M | $67.9M | $38.8M | $849M |
| Year 5 | $1.9B | $228M | $64.9M | $45.9M | $803M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 7.0× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $1.6B | |
| − Debt left | $803M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $789M | |
| Money multiple | 1.38× | on $574M put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 6.6% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $11.36; the IRR reaches 20% at $10.60 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $12.50 | 13.8% |
| 20% | $13.63 | 10.2% |
| 30% | $14.77 | 6.6% |
| 40% | $15.90 | 3.3% |
| 50% | $17.04 | 0.6% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $1.4B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $174M | 12.2% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $56.9M | |
| Capital spending | $67.8M | |
| Debt | $566M | |
| Cash | $294M | |
| Share price | $11.36 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 26% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Accel Entertainment would cost about $15.05 a share, $1.3B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $13.63 | $1.1B |
| Median | 32.5% | $15.05 | $1.3B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $17.24 | $1.4B |
Accel Entertainment's latest quarter
Accel Entertainment, Q3 2026: revenue $364M (+10% year over year), operating margin 7.9%, net earnings $20.6M, operating cash flow $79.4M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Accel Entertainment being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Accel Entertainment?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($14.77 a share) would return about 7% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $10.60 a share (−7% against today's $11.36).
What would a takeover of Accel Entertainment cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Accel Entertainment would cost about $15.05 a share, $1.3B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.