Filing Flows › Arch Capital Group (ACGL) › Stock forecast & fair value
Arch Capital Group (ACGL) stock forecast and fair value
Arch Capital Group (ACGL) trades at $110.57. 19 analysts' median price target is $111.00 (+0.4%), from $97.00 to $140.00. Across 13 valuation methods the middle fair value is $138.63 (+25%).
Fair value by method
| Method | Low | Point | High | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E vs peers | $95.02 | $138.63 | $166.86 | +25% |
| P/E vs peers, weighted | $129.65 | $154.65 | $173.80 | +40% |
| P/E vs peers, matched | $126.85 | $155.03 | $164.88 | +40% |
| Residual income | $98.26 | $102.07 | $106.11 | -8% |
| P/B vs ROE (insurer peers) | $61.67 | $163.01 | $264.35 | +47% |
| Analysts' price targets | $97.00 | $113.58 | $140.00 | +3% |
| Shareholder yield (dividends + buybacks) | $94.56 | $113.48 | $141.87 | +3% |
| Justified P/B (Gordon growth) | $222.46 | $286.06 | $400.60 | +159% |
| Stage-weighted value (financial (bank / insurer)) | $113.30 | $167.33 | $231.05 | +51% |
| Combined forecast (3 months) | $90.68 | $115.12 | $142.60 | +4% |
Arch Capital Group's latest quarter
Arch Capital Group, Q3 2026: revenue $4.7B (-9% year over year), operating margin 25.5%, net earnings $1.0B, operating cash flow $1.8B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
What is the price target for ACGL stock?
The median of 19 analysts' 12-month targets is $111.00, +0.4% from $110.57; the range is $97.00 to $140.00. The average rating is buy.
What is Arch Capital Group's fair value?
The fair-value methods on Filing Flows (DCF, Monte Carlo, peer multiples and others) put it between $61.05 and $286.06, with a middle value of $138.63 against a price of $110.57. Each method's assumptions are on the page.
Does Arch Capital Group usually beat earnings estimates?
It beat the consensus EPS estimate in 100% of the quarters on record.
Is ACGL stock a buy?
Filing Flows does not give advice. It shows what analysts expect, what each valuation method implies and the figures behind them, read from SEC filings, so you can judge for yourself.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.