Filing Flows › Adobe (ADBE) › Takeover & LBO
Is Adobe (ADBE) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($320.37 a share) would return about 7% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $242.88 a share (−1% against today's $246.44). At $125.8B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 1.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.36× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $320.37 | today's $246.44 plus 30% |
| × shares | 395.5 million | |
| = Equity value | $126.7B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $4.8B | |
| − Cash | $5.6B | |
| = Enterprise value | $125.8B | 12.5× EBITDA of $10.0B |
| Fees | $2.5B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $55.2B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $73.1B | 57% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $28.0B | $10.8B | $4.2B | $4.9B | $50.3B |
| Year 2 | $29.9B | $11.6B | $3.8B | $5.8B | $44.5B |
| Year 3 | $31.6B | $12.2B | $3.4B | $6.7B | $37.8B |
| Year 4 | $32.9B | $12.7B | $2.9B | $7.5B | $30.2B |
| Year 5 | $33.9B | $13.1B | $2.3B | $8.3B | $21.9B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 9.6× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $126.2B | |
| − Debt left | $21.9B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $104.2B | |
| Money multiple | 1.42× | on $73.1B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 7.3% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $246.44; the IRR reaches 20% at $242.88 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $271.08 | 14.4% |
| 20% | $295.73 | 10.5% |
| 30% | $320.37 | 7.3% |
| 40% | $345.02 | 4.6% |
| 50% | $369.66 | 2.3% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $26.0B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $10.0B | 38.6% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $766M | |
| Capital spending | $214M | |
| Debt | $4.8B | |
| Cash | $5.6B | |
| Share price | $246.44 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 22% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Adobe would cost about $320.37 a share, $126.7B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 12% | $276.01 | $109.2B |
| Median | 30% | $320.37 | $126.7B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 31% | $322.84 | $127.7B |
The odds, from history
Historically 1.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.36× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Adobe's latest quarter
Adobe, Q3 FY26: revenue $6.8B (+13% year over year), operating margin 34.8%, net earnings $1.8B, operating cash flow $2.5B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Adobe being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Adobe?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($320.37 a share) would return about 7% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $242.88 a share (−1% against today's $246.44). At $125.8B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of Adobe cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Adobe would cost about $320.37 a share, $126.7B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.