Filing Flows › Analog Devices (ADI) › Takeover & LBO
Is Analog Devices (ADI) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($469.31 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $243.87 a share (−32% against today's $361.01). At $236.2B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 2.9% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.58× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $469.31 | today's $361.01 plus 30% |
| × shares | 488.8 million | |
| = Equity value | $229.4B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $9.1B | |
| − Cash | $2.3B | |
| = Enterprise value | $236.2B | 34.2× EBITDA of $6.9B |
| Fees | $4.7B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $38.0B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $203.0B | 84% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $15.0B | $7.5B | $2.9B | $3.5B | $34.5B |
| Year 2 | $16.0B | $8.0B | $2.6B | $4.2B | $30.3B |
| Year 3 | $16.9B | $8.4B | $2.3B | $4.8B | $25.5B |
| Year 4 | $17.6B | $8.8B | $2.0B | $5.4B | $20.1B |
| Year 5 | $18.1B | $9.0B | $1.5B | $6.0B | $14.0B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 26.5× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $239.4B | |
| − Debt left | $14.0B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $225.3B | |
| Money multiple | 1.11× | on $203.0B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 2.1% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $361.01; the IRR reaches 20% at $243.87 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $397.11 | 6.2% |
| 20% | $433.21 | 4.0% |
| 30% | $469.31 | 2.1% |
| 40% | $505.41 | 0.4% |
| 50% | $541.51 | −1.2% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $13.9B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $6.9B | 49.7% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $2.0B | |
| Capital spending | $608M | |
| Debt | $9.1B | |
| Cash | $2.3B | |
| Share price | $361.01 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 12% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Analog Devices would cost about $469.31 a share, $229.4B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 12% | $404.33 | $197.7B |
| Median | 30% | $469.31 | $229.4B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 31% | $472.92 | $231.2B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.9% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.58× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Analog Devices' latest quarter
Analog Devices, Q3 FY26: revenue $4.0B (+40% year over year), operating margin 40.1%, net earnings $1.3B, operating cash flow $1.6B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Analog Devices being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Analog Devices?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($469.31 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $243.87 a share (−32% against today's $361.01). At $236.2B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of Analog Devices cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Analog Devices would cost about $469.31 a share, $229.4B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.