Filing Flows › ADT (ADT) › Takeover & LBO
Is ADT (ADT) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($12.84 a share) would return about 16% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $11.06 a share (12% against today's $9.88). Historically 2.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.52× the average). Latest signal (2026-10-31): ADT (ADT) to Go Private in $15.3B Deal Amid Dividend Sustainabil.
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $12.84 | today's $9.88 plus 30% |
| × shares | 911.3 million | |
| = Equity value | $11.7B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $7.9B | |
| − Cash | $228M | |
| = Enterprise value | $19.3B | 7.3× EBITDA of $2.7B |
| Fees | $386M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $12.6B | 4.7× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 65% of the price |
| Buyer's own money | $7.1B | 36% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $5.3B | $2.7B | $961M | $1.5B | $11.1B |
| Year 2 | $5.4B | $2.8B | $850M | $1.6B | $9.5B |
| Year 3 | $5.6B | $2.8B | $729M | $1.7B | $7.8B |
| Year 4 | $5.7B | $2.9B | $597M | $1.9B | $5.9B |
| Year 5 | $5.9B | $3.0B | $454M | $2.0B | $3.9B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 6.2× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $18.8B | |
| − Debt left | $3.9B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $14.9B | |
| Money multiple | 2.09× | on $7.1B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 15.9% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $9.88; the IRR reaches 20% at $11.06 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $10.86 | 20.5% |
| 20% | $11.85 | 18.1% |
| 30% | $12.84 | 15.9% |
| 40% | $13.82 | 13.6% |
| 50% | $14.81 | 11.4% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $5.2B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $2.7B | 51.1% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $1.4B | |
| Capital spending | $191M | |
| Debt | $7.9B | |
| Cash | $228M | |
| Share price | $9.88 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 2.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 28% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, ADT would cost about $13.82 a share, $12.6B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $11.33 | $10.3B |
| Median | 40% | $13.82 | $12.6B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $15.82 | $14.4B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.52× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Rumors and deal signals
- 2026-10-31 · news · ADT (ADT) to Go Private in $15.3B Deal Amid Dividend Sustainabil
- 2026-10-29 · news · ADT (ADT) Could Go Private Under A Thrive Capital Led Deal
- 2026-10-29 · 8-K deal · On October 29, 2026, ADT Inc. (the “ Company ”) entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “ Merger Agreement ”) with Abode Parent, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company (“ Parent ”), and Abode Merger Sub, Inc., a Delaware corpor
- 2026-10-29 · 8-K deal · ADT to be Acquired by Thrive Holdings in $15.3 Billion Transaction
- 2026-10-28 · news · ADT Inc. (ADT) Shares Jump 9% Amid Thrive Capital Buyout Talks
ADT's latest quarter
ADT, Q3 2026: revenue $1.3B (+4% year over year), operating margin 23.0%, net earnings $151M, operating cash flow $440M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is ADT being acquired?
The latest signal on file is from 2026-10-31: ADT (ADT) to Go Private in $15.3B Deal Amid Dividend Sustainabil. A headline is not a deal; Filing Flows lists the news, 8-K filings and 13D filings about a sale.
Could private equity buy ADT?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($12.84 a share) would return about 16% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $11.06 a share (12% against today's $9.88).
What would a takeover of ADT cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, ADT would cost about $13.82 a share, $12.6B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.