Filing Flows › Ameren (AEE) › Takeover & LBO
Is Ameren (AEE) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($146.68 a share) would return a loss of about 16% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $20.04 a share (−82% against today's $112.83). At $60.9B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 3.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.6× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $146.68 | today's $112.83 plus 30% |
| × shares | 278.9 million | |
| = Equity value | $40.9B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $19.9B | |
| − Cash | $40.0M | |
| + Other claims | $129M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $60.9B | 15.5× EBITDA of $3.9B |
| Fees | $1.2B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $21.7B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $40.5B | 65% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $8.9B | $3.9B | $1.7B | −$2.9B | $24.6B |
| Year 2 | $9.0B | $4.0B | $1.9B | −$3.1B | $27.6B |
| Year 3 | $9.1B | $4.0B | $2.1B | −$3.3B | $31.0B |
| Year 4 | $9.3B | $4.1B | $2.4B | −$3.6B | $34.6B |
| Year 5 | $9.6B | $4.2B | $2.6B | −$3.9B | $38.5B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 13.1× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $55.0B | |
| − Debt left | $38.5B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $16.6B | |
| Money multiple | 0.41× | on $40.5B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −16.4% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $112.83; the IRR reaches 20% at $20.04 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $124.11 | −13.4% |
| 20% | $135.40 | −15.0% |
| 30% | $146.68 | −16.4% |
| 40% | $157.96 | −17.6% |
| 50% | $169.25 | −18.8% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $8.9B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $3.9B | 44.1% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $1.7B | |
| Capital spending | $5.1B | |
| Debt | $19.9B | |
| Cash | $40.0M | |
| Share price | $112.83 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows -0.3% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 12% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Ameren would cost about $149.50 a share, $41.7B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $135.40 | $37.8B |
| Median | 32.5% | $149.50 | $41.7B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $171.28 | $47.8B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.6× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Ameren's latest quarter
Ameren, Q3 2026: revenue $2.9B (+7% year over year), operating margin 31.2%, net earnings $677M, operating cash flow $1.0B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Ameren being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Ameren?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($146.68 a share) would return a loss of about 16% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $20.04 a share (−82% against today's $112.83). At $60.9B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of Ameren cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Ameren would cost about $149.50 a share, $41.7B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.