Filing Flows › Affirm Holdings (AFRM) › Takeover & LBO
Is Affirm Holdings (AFRM) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($95.51 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $36.46 a share (−50% against today's $73.47). It already carries 9.5× EBITDA in net debt (the model flags anything over 6×), so a buyer could add little debt of its own. Historically 3.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.74× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $95.51 | today's $73.47 plus 30% |
| × shares | 351.8 million | |
| = Equity value | $33.6B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $10.3B | |
| − Cash | $2.1B | |
| = Enterprise value | $41.8B | 48.3× EBITDA of $865M |
| Fees | $836M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $4.8B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $37.9B | 89% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $5.0B | $934M | $364M | $241M | $4.5B |
| Year 2 | $5.3B | $997M | $346M | $301M | $4.2B |
| Year 3 | $5.6B | $1.1B | $323M | $361M | $3.9B |
| Year 4 | $5.8B | $1.1B | $295M | $419M | $3.4B |
| Year 5 | $6.0B | $1.1B | $263M | $475M | $3.0B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 39.3× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $44.4B | |
| − Debt left | $3.0B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $41.5B | |
| Money multiple | 1.10× | on $37.9B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 1.8% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $73.47; the IRR reaches 20% at $36.46 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $80.82 | 4.9% |
| 20% | $88.16 | 3.3% |
| 30% | $95.51 | 1.8% |
| 40% | $102.86 | 0.5% |
| 50% | $110.20 | −0.8% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $4.6B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $865M | 18.8% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $325M | |
| Capital spending | $246M | |
| Debt | $10.3B | |
| Cash | $2.1B | |
| Share price | $73.47 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 12% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 14.9% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 9.5% to 33.6%), according to the 17 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Affirm Holdings would cost about $84.42 a share, $29.7B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 9.5% | $80.45 | $28.3B |
| Median | 14.9% | $84.42 | $29.7B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 33.6% | $98.16 | $34.5B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.74× the average). Its figures put it in decile 3 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Affirm Holdings' latest quarter
Affirm Holdings, Q1 FY27: revenue $1.3B (+35% year over year), operating margin 14.8%, net earnings $164M, operating cash flow $207M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Affirm Holdings being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Affirm Holdings?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($95.51 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $36.46 a share (−50% against today's $73.47). It already carries 9.5× EBITDA in net debt (the model flags anything over 6×), so a buyer could add little debt of its own.
What would a takeover of Affirm Holdings cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 14.9% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 9.5% to 33.6%), according to the 17 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Affirm Holdings would cost about $84.42 a share, $29.7B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.