Filing Flows › AdaptHealth (AHCO) › Takeover & LBO
Is AdaptHealth (AHCO) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($7.55 a share) would return a loss of all the money the buyer puts in to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. It already carries 15.1× EBITDA in net debt (the model flags anything over 6×), so a buyer could add little debt of its own. Historically 4.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.88× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $7.55 | today's $5.81 plus 30% |
| × shares | 136.4 million | |
| = Equity value | $1.0B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $1.9B | |
| − Cash | $48.0M | |
| + Other claims | $7.5M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $2.9B | 23.7× EBITDA of $121M |
| Fees | $57.5M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $667M | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $2.3B | 77% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $3.9B | $131M | $51.1M | −$485M | $1.2B |
| Year 2 | $4.1B | $140M | $88.2M | −$547M | $1.7B |
| Year 3 | $4.4B | $148M | $130M | −$609M | $2.3B |
| Year 4 | $4.5B | $154M | $177M | −$671M | $3.0B |
| Year 5 | $4.7B | $158M | $228M | −$732M | $3.7B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 21.7× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $3.4B | |
| − Debt left | $3.7B | |
| = Buyer's equity | −$270M | |
| Money multiple | -0.12× | on $2.3B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −100.0% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $5.81.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $6.39 | −100.0% |
| 20% | $6.97 | −100.0% |
| 30% | $7.55 | −100.0% |
| 40% | $8.13 | −100.0% |
| 50% | $8.71 | −100.0% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $3.6B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $121M | 3.4% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $441M | |
| Capital spending | $497M | |
| Debt | $1.9B | |
| Cash | $48.0M | |
| Share price | $5.81 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 21% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, AdaptHealth would cost about $7.84 a share, $1.1B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 22% | $7.09 | $967M |
| Median | 35% | $7.84 | $1.1B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 45% | $8.42 | $1.1B |
The odds, from history
Historically 4.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.88× the average). Its figures put it in decile 5 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
AdaptHealth's latest quarter
AdaptHealth, Q3 2026: revenue $746M (+11% year over year), operating margin -20.9%, net loss $153M, operating cash flow $157M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is AdaptHealth being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy AdaptHealth?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($7.55 a share) would return a loss of all the money the buyer puts in to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. It already carries 15.1× EBITDA in net debt (the model flags anything over 6×), so a buyer could add little debt of its own.
What would a takeover of AdaptHealth cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, AdaptHealth would cost about $7.84 a share, $1.1B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.