Filing Flows › Albany International (AIN) › Takeover & LBO
Is Albany International (AIN) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($87.10 a share) would return about 6% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $61.39 a share (−8% against today's $67.00). Historically 9.5% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.88× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $87.10 | today's $67.00 plus 30% |
| × shares | 28.6 million | |
| = Equity value | $2.5B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $422M | |
| − Cash | $79.1M | |
| + Other claims | $6.4M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $2.8B | 12.1× EBITDA of $234M |
| Fees | $56.8M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $1.3B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $1.6B | 56% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.4B | $253M | $98.6M | $65.5M | $1.2B |
| Year 2 | $1.5B | $270M | $93.6M | $79.7M | $1.1B |
| Year 3 | $1.6B | $285M | $87.5M | $93.8M | $1.0B |
| Year 4 | $1.7B | $297M | $80.3M | $107M | $942M |
| Year 5 | $1.7B | $306M | $72.1M | $120M | $822M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 9.7× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $3.0B | |
| − Debt left | $822M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $2.1B | |
| Money multiple | 1.33× | on $1.6B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 5.8% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $67.00; the IRR reaches 20% at $61.39 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $73.70 | 11.9% |
| 20% | $80.40 | 8.6% |
| 30% | $87.10 | 5.8% |
| 40% | $93.80 | 3.4% |
| 50% | $100.50 | 1.3% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $1.3B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $234M | 17.9% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $87.5M | |
| Capital spending | $56.0M | |
| Debt | $422M | |
| Cash | $79.1M | |
| Share price | $67.00 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 30% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Albany International would cost about $88.77 a share, $2.5B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $80.40 | $2.3B |
| Median | 32.5% | $88.77 | $2.5B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $101.71 | $2.9B |
The odds, from history
Historically 9.5% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.88× the average). Its figures put it in decile 10 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Albany International's latest quarter
Albany International, Q3 2026: revenue $350M (+34% year over year), operating margin 17.0%, net earnings $41.9M, operating cash flow $48.6M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Albany International being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Albany International?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($87.10 a share) would return about 6% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $61.39 a share (−8% against today's $67.00).
What would a takeover of Albany International cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Albany International would cost about $88.77 a share, $2.5B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.