Filing Flows › Alcon (ALC) › Takeover & LBO
Is Alcon (ALC) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($97.42 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $50.20 a share (−33% against today's $74.94).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $97.42 | today's $74.94 plus 30% |
| × shares | 487.4 million | |
| = Equity value | $47.5B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $399M | |
| − Cash | $0 | |
| = Enterprise value | $47.9B | 30.5× EBITDA of $1.6B |
| Fees | $958M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $8.6B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $40.2B | 82% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $11.2B | $1.7B | $661M | $241M | $8.4B |
| Year 2 | $12.0B | $1.8B | $643M | $324M | $8.1B |
| Year 3 | $12.7B | $1.9B | $618M | $407M | $7.7B |
| Year 4 | $13.2B | $2.0B | $587M | $487M | $7.2B |
| Year 5 | $13.6B | $2.1B | $550M | $564M | $6.6B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 23.5× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $48.2B | |
| − Debt left | $6.6B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $41.6B | |
| Money multiple | 1.04× | on $40.2B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 0.7% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $74.94; the IRR reaches 20% at $50.20 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $82.43 | 4.9% |
| 20% | $89.93 | 2.7% |
| 30% | $97.42 | 0.7% |
| 40% | $104.92 | −1.1% |
| 50% | $112.41 | −2.7% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $10.4B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $1.6B | 15.1% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $212M | |
| Capital spending | $543M | |
| Debt | $399M | |
| Cash | $0 | |
| Share price | $74.94 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 16% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Alcon would cost about $101.17 a share, $49.3B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 22% | $91.43 | $44.6B |
| Median | 35% | $101.17 | $49.3B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 45% | $108.66 | $53.0B |
Alcon's latest quarter
Alcon, Q2 2026: revenue $2.8B (+9% year over year), operating margin 0.4%, net earnings $0. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Alcon being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Alcon?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($97.42 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $50.20 a share (−33% against today's $74.94).
What would a takeover of Alcon cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Alcon would cost about $101.17 a share, $49.3B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 9, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.