Filing Flows › Alamo Group (ALG) › Takeover & LBO
Is Alamo Group (ALG) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($192.09 a share) would return a loss of about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $119.31 a share (−19% against today's $147.76). Historically 4.1% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.81× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $192.09 | today's $147.76 plus 30% |
| × shares | 12.1 million | |
| = Equity value | $2.3B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $232M | |
| − Cash | $231M | |
| = Enterprise value | $2.3B | 14.5× EBITDA of $160M |
| Fees | $46.4M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $878M | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $1.5B | 63% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.7B | $162M | $67.1M | $57.4M | $820M |
| Year 2 | $1.7B | $166M | $62.7M | $62.4M | $758M |
| Year 3 | $1.8B | $170M | $58.0M | $67.9M | $690M |
| Year 4 | $1.8B | $174M | $52.8M | $74.2M | $616M |
| Year 5 | $1.9B | $180M | $47.1M | $81.2M | $534M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 11.2× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $2.0B | |
| − Debt left | $534M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $1.5B | |
| Money multiple | 0.99× | on $1.5B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −0.2% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $147.76; the IRR reaches 20% at $119.31 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $162.54 | 5.6% |
| 20% | $177.31 | 2.5% |
| 30% | $192.09 | −0.2% |
| 40% | $206.86 | −2.5% |
| 50% | $221.64 | −4.4% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $1.6B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $160M | 9.7% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $45.7M | |
| Capital spending | $21.3M | |
| Debt | $232M | |
| Cash | $231M | |
| Share price | $147.76 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 1.8% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 27% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Alamo Group would cost about $206.86 a share, $2.5B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $169.48 | $2.0B |
| Median | 40% | $206.86 | $2.5B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $236.71 | $2.9B |
The odds, from history
Historically 4.1% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.81× the average). Its figures put it in decile 4 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Alamo Group's latest quarter
Alamo Group, Q3 2026: revenue $403M (-4% year over year), operating margin 0.9%, net earnings $2.0M, operating cash flow $60.6M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Alamo Group being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Alamo Group?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($192.09 a share) would return a loss of about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $119.31 a share (−19% against today's $147.76).
What would a takeover of Alamo Group cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Alamo Group would cost about $206.86 a share, $2.5B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.