Filing Flows › Alkermes (ALKS) › Takeover & LBO
Is Alkermes (ALKS) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($58.94 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $24.87 a share (−45% against today's $45.34). Historically 3.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.66× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $58.94 | today's $45.34 plus 30% |
| × shares | 176.4 million | |
| = Equity value | $10.4B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $1.5B | |
| − Cash | $755M | |
| = Enterprise value | $11.2B | 77.0× EBITDA of $145M |
| Fees | $223M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $797M | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $10.6B | 93% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.9B | $157M | $61.0M | $62.1M | $735M |
| Year 2 | $2.0B | $167M | $56.2M | $74.7M | $660M |
| Year 3 | $2.1B | $176M | $50.5M | $87.4M | $573M |
| Year 4 | $2.2B | $184M | $43.8M | $99.8M | $473M |
| Year 5 | $2.3B | $189M | $36.2M | $112M | $361M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 60.4× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $11.4B | |
| − Debt left | $361M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $11.1B | |
| Money multiple | 1.05× | on $10.6B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 0.9% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $45.34; the IRR reaches 20% at $24.87 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $49.87 | 4.4% |
| 20% | $54.41 | 2.5% |
| 30% | $58.94 | 0.9% |
| 40% | $63.48 | −0.6% |
| 50% | $68.01 | −1.9% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $1.8B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $145M | 8.3% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $80.7M | |
| Capital spending | $15.6M | |
| Debt | $1.5B | |
| Cash | $755M | |
| Share price | $45.34 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 30% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Alkermes would cost about $61.21 a share, $10.8B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 22% | $55.31 | $9.8B |
| Median | 35% | $61.21 | $10.8B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 45% | $65.74 | $11.6B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.66× the average). Its figures put it in decile 3 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Alkermes' latest quarter
Alkermes, Q3 2026: revenue $480M (+22% year over year), operating margin 7.5%, net earnings $16.3M, operating cash flow $93.5M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Alkermes being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Alkermes?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($58.94 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $24.87 a share (−45% against today's $45.34).
What would a takeover of Alkermes cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Alkermes would cost about $61.21 a share, $10.8B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.