Filing Flows › Antero Midstream (AM) › Takeover & LBO
Is Antero Midstream (AM) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($27.91 a share) would return about 5% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $15.41 a share (−28% against today's $21.47). Historically 4.2% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.84× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $27.91 | today's $21.47 plus 30% |
| × shares | 477.1 million | |
| = Equity value | $13.3B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $3.6B | |
| − Cash | $0 | |
| = Enterprise value | $16.9B | 19.4× EBITDA of $871M |
| Fees | $338M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $4.8B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $12.4B | 72% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.3B | $931M | $367M | $466M | $4.3B |
| Year 2 | $1.4B | $986M | $331M | $537M | $3.8B |
| Year 3 | $1.5B | $1.0B | $290M | $606M | $3.2B |
| Year 4 | $1.5B | $1.1B | $243M | $674M | $2.5B |
| Year 5 | $1.6B | $1.1B | $192M | $738M | $1.8B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 15.9× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $17.6B | |
| − Debt left | $1.8B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $15.8B | |
| Money multiple | 1.27× | on $12.4B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 4.9% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $21.47; the IRR reaches 20% at $15.41 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $23.62 | 8.8% |
| 20% | $25.76 | 6.8% |
| 30% | $27.91 | 4.9% |
| 40% | $30.06 | 3.2% |
| 50% | $32.20 | 1.7% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $1.2B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $871M | 70.6% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $220M | |
| Debt | $3.6B | |
| Cash | $0 | |
| Share price | $21.47 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 6.9% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 27% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Antero Midstream would cost about $28.45 a share, $13.6B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $25.76 | $12.3B |
| Median | 32.5% | $28.45 | $13.6B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $32.59 | $15.5B |
The odds, from history
Historically 4.2% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.84× the average). Its figures put it in decile 4 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Antero Midstream's latest quarter
Antero Midstream, Q3 2026: revenue $327M (+11% year over year), operating margin 170.4%, net earnings $393M, operating cash flow $600M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Antero Midstream being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Antero Midstream?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($27.91 a share) would return about 5% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $15.41 a share (−28% against today's $21.47).
What would a takeover of Antero Midstream cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Antero Midstream would cost about $28.45 a share, $13.6B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.