Filing Flows › Applied Materials (AMAT) › Takeover & LBO
Is Applied Materials (AMAT) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($415.03 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $211.82 a share (−34% against today's $319.25). At $330.5B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 2.9% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.58× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $415.03 | today's $319.25 plus 30% |
| × shares | 800.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $332.0B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $7.7B | |
| − Cash | $9.2B | |
| = Enterprise value | $330.5B | 34.2× EBITDA of $9.7B |
| Fees | $6.6B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $53.2B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $284.0B | 84% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $33.2B | $10.4B | $4.1B | $2.3B | $50.8B |
| Year 2 | $35.4B | $11.1B | $3.9B | $2.9B | $47.9B |
| Year 3 | $37.3B | $11.7B | $3.7B | $3.5B | $44.4B |
| Year 4 | $38.9B | $12.2B | $3.4B | $4.0B | $40.4B |
| Year 5 | $40.1B | $12.6B | $3.1B | $4.6B | $35.9B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 26.3× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $329.9B | |
| − Debt left | $35.9B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $294.0B | |
| Money multiple | 1.04× | on $284.0B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 0.7% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $319.25; the IRR reaches 20% at $211.82 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $351.18 | 4.9% |
| 20% | $383.10 | 2.7% |
| 30% | $415.03 | 0.7% |
| 40% | $446.95 | −1.1% |
| 50% | $478.88 | −2.6% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $30.8B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $9.7B | 31.4% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $527M | |
| Capital spending | $2.8B | |
| Debt | $7.7B | |
| Cash | $9.2B | |
| Share price | $319.25 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 7.8% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 14% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Applied Materials would cost about $415.03 a share, $332.0B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 12% | $357.56 | $286.0B |
| Median | 30% | $415.03 | $332.0B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 31% | $418.22 | $334.6B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.9% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.58× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Applied Materials' latest quarter
Applied Materials, Q3 FY26: revenue $9.1B (+25% year over year), operating margin 33.7%, net earnings $2.5B, operating cash flow $3.0B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Applied Materials being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Applied Materials?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($415.03 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $211.82 a share (−34% against today's $319.25). At $330.5B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of Applied Materials cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Applied Materials would cost about $415.03 a share, $332.0B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.