Filing Flows › Amcor (AMCR) › Takeover & LBO
Is Amcor (AMCR) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($59.59 a share) would return about 7% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $38.80 a share (−15% against today's $45.84). Historically 2.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.39× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $59.59 | today's $45.84 plus 30% |
| × shares | 464.6 million | |
| = Equity value | $27.7B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $14.1B | |
| − Cash | $832M | |
| + Other claims | $11.0M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $40.9B | 12.1× EBITDA of $3.4B |
| Fees | $818M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $18.5B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $23.2B | 56% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $25.8B | $3.6B | $1.4B | $876M | $17.7B |
| Year 2 | $27.5B | $3.9B | $1.4B | $1.1B | $16.6B |
| Year 3 | $29.1B | $4.1B | $1.3B | $1.3B | $15.2B |
| Year 4 | $30.3B | $4.3B | $1.2B | $1.6B | $13.7B |
| Year 5 | $31.2B | $4.4B | $1.0B | $1.8B | $11.9B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 10.2× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $45.1B | |
| − Debt left | $11.9B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $33.2B | |
| Money multiple | 1.43× | on $23.2B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 7.4% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $45.84; the IRR reaches 20% at $38.80 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $50.42 | 12.0% |
| 20% | $55.01 | 9.6% |
| 30% | $59.59 | 7.4% |
| 40% | $64.18 | 5.5% |
| 50% | $68.76 | 3.8% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $23.9B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $3.4B | 14.1% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $1.5B | |
| Capital spending | $985M | |
| Debt | $14.1B | |
| Cash | $832M | |
| Share price | $45.84 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 15% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Amcor would cost about $60.74 a share, $28.2B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $55.01 | $25.6B |
| Median | 32.5% | $60.74 | $28.2B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $69.59 | $32.3B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.39× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Amcor's latest quarter
Amcor, Q3 2026: revenue $6.1B (+7% year over year), operating margin 7.4%, net earnings $242M, operating cash flow −$527M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Amcor being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Amcor?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($59.59 a share) would return about 7% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $38.80 a share (−15% against today's $45.84).
What would a takeover of Amcor cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Amcor would cost about $60.74 a share, $28.2B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.