Filing Flows › Amrize (AMRZ) › Takeover & LBO
Is Amrize (AMRZ) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($55.45 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $32.80 a share (−23% against today's $42.65). Historically 3.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.59× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $55.45 | today's $42.65 plus 30% |
| × shares | 545.5 million | |
| = Equity value | $30.2B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $5.8B | |
| − Cash | $299M | |
| + Other claims | −$9.0M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $35.8B | 13.1× EBITDA of $2.7B |
| Fees | $716M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $15.0B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $21.5B | 59% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $12.7B | $2.8B | $1.1B | $491M | $14.5B |
| Year 2 | $13.1B | $2.9B | $1.1B | $570M | $14.0B |
| Year 3 | $13.6B | $3.0B | $1.1B | $653M | $13.3B |
| Year 4 | $14.0B | $3.1B | $1.0B | $741M | $12.6B |
| Year 5 | $14.4B | $3.2B | $961M | $834M | $11.7B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 10.5× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $33.8B | |
| − Debt left | $11.7B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $22.1B | |
| Money multiple | 1.03× | on $21.5B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 0.6% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $42.65; the IRR reaches 20% at $32.80 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $46.91 | 5.7% |
| 20% | $51.18 | 2.9% |
| 30% | $55.45 | 0.6% |
| 40% | $59.71 | −1.5% |
| 50% | $63.97 | −3.4% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $12.3B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $2.7B | 22.3% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $828M | |
| Capital spending | $937M | |
| Debt | $5.8B | |
| Cash | $299M | |
| Share price | $42.65 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 3.5% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 21% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Amrize would cost about $56.51 a share, $30.8B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $51.18 | $27.9B |
| Median | 32.5% | $56.51 | $30.8B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $64.74 | $35.3B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.59× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Amrize's latest quarter
Amrize, Q3 2026: revenue $3.8B (+2% year over year), operating margin 21.0%, net earnings $558M, operating cash flow $697M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Amrize being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Amrize?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($55.45 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $32.80 a share (−23% against today's $42.65).
What would a takeover of Amrize cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Amrize would cost about $56.51 a share, $30.8B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.