Filing Flows › Amphenol (APH) › Takeover & LBO
Is Amphenol (APH) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($93.13 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $51.48 a share (−28% against today's $71.64). At $253.3B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 3.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.59× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $93.13 | today's $71.64 plus 30% |
| × shares | 2,582.9 million | |
| = Equity value | $240.6B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $17.9B | |
| − Cash | $5.3B | |
| + Other claims | $139M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $253.3B | 23.9× EBITDA of $10.6B |
| Fees | $5.1B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $58.2B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $200.1B | 77% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $35.7B | $11.4B | $4.5B | $3.6B | $54.6B |
| Year 2 | $38.1B | $12.2B | $4.2B | $4.3B | $50.3B |
| Year 3 | $40.2B | $12.9B | $3.8B | $5.0B | $45.2B |
| Year 4 | $41.9B | $13.4B | $3.5B | $5.6B | $39.6B |
| Year 5 | $43.2B | $13.8B | $3.0B | $6.2B | $33.4B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 18.7× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $258.3B | |
| − Debt left | $33.4B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $224.9B | |
| Money multiple | 1.12× | on $200.1B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 2.4% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $71.64; the IRR reaches 20% at $51.48 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $78.80 | 6.7% |
| 20% | $85.97 | 4.4% |
| 30% | $93.13 | 2.4% |
| 40% | $100.30 | 0.5% |
| 50% | $107.46 | −1.1% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $33.0B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $10.6B | 32.0% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $1.4B | |
| Capital spending | $1.4B | |
| Debt | $17.9B | |
| Cash | $5.3B | |
| Share price | $71.64 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 30% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Amphenol would cost about $93.13 a share, $240.6B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 12% | $80.24 | $207.2B |
| Median | 30% | $93.13 | $240.6B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 31% | $93.85 | $242.4B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.59× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Amphenol's latest quarter
Amphenol, Q3 2026: revenue $10.2B (+65% year over year), operating margin 29.5%, net earnings $2.0B, operating cash flow $2.1B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Amphenol being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Amphenol?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($93.13 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $51.48 a share (−28% against today's $71.64). At $253.3B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of Amphenol cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Amphenol would cost about $93.13 a share, $240.6B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.