Filing Flows › AppLovin (APP) › Takeover & LBO
Is AppLovin (APP) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($516.33 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $288.59 a share (−27% against today's $397.18). At $173.2B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 2.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.46× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $516.33 | today's $397.18 plus 30% |
| × shares | 334.8 million | |
| = Equity value | $172.9B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $3.5B | |
| − Cash | $3.2B | |
| = Enterprise value | $173.2B | 28.6× EBITDA of $6.1B |
| Fees | $3.5B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $33.3B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $143.4B | 81% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $8.2B | $6.5B | $2.5B | $3.3B | $30.0B |
| Year 2 | $8.8B | $7.0B | $2.3B | $3.9B | $26.0B |
| Year 3 | $9.3B | $7.4B | $2.0B | $4.5B | $21.5B |
| Year 4 | $9.6B | $7.7B | $1.6B | $5.1B | $16.5B |
| Year 5 | $9.9B | $7.9B | $1.3B | $5.6B | $10.9B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 22.0× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $174.1B | |
| − Debt left | $10.9B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $163.2B | |
| Money multiple | 1.14× | on $143.4B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 2.6% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $397.18; the IRR reaches 20% at $288.59 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $436.90 | 7.0% |
| 20% | $476.62 | 4.7% |
| 30% | $516.33 | 2.6% |
| 40% | $556.05 | 0.8% |
| 50% | $595.77 | −0.9% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $7.6B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $6.1B | 79.5% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $133M | |
| Capital spending | $4.8M | |
| Debt | $3.5B | |
| Cash | $3.2B | |
| Share price | $397.18 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 16% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, AppLovin would cost about $516.33 a share, $172.9B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 12% | $444.84 | $148.9B |
| Median | 30% | $516.33 | $172.9B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 31% | $520.31 | $174.2B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.46× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
AppLovin's latest quarter
AppLovin, Q3 2026: revenue $2.2B (+56% year over year), operating margin 78.2%, net earnings $1.4B, operating cash flow $1.4B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is AppLovin being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy AppLovin?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($516.33 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $288.59 a share (−27% against today's $397.18). At $173.2B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of AppLovin cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, AppLovin would cost about $516.33 a share, $172.9B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.