Filing Flows › Aptiv (APTV) › Takeover & LBO
Is Aptiv (APTV) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($52.12 a share) would return about 13% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $39.86 a share (−1% against today's $40.09). Historically 2.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.53× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $52.12 | today's $40.09 plus 30% |
| × shares | 206.3 million | |
| = Equity value | $10.8B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $7.7B | |
| − Cash | $670M | |
| = Enterprise value | $17.8B | 6.9× EBITDA of $2.6B |
| Fees | $355M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $11.5B | 4.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 65% of the price |
| Buyer's own money | $6.6B | 36% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $17.4B | $2.7B | $883M | $824M | $10.7B |
| Year 2 | $18.1B | $2.8B | $820M | $931M | $9.8B |
| Year 3 | $18.7B | $2.9B | $749M | $1.0B | $8.7B |
| Year 4 | $19.3B | $3.0B | $669M | $1.2B | $7.6B |
| Year 5 | $19.9B | $3.0B | $581M | $1.3B | $6.3B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 6.0× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $18.2B | |
| − Debt left | $6.3B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $11.9B | |
| Money multiple | 1.81× | on $6.6B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 12.5% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $40.09; the IRR reaches 20% at $39.86 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $44.10 | 17.4% |
| 20% | $48.11 | 14.9% |
| 30% | $52.12 | 12.5% |
| 40% | $56.13 | 10.2% |
| 50% | $60.14 | 7.8% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $16.7B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $2.6B | 15.3% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $1.1B | |
| Capital spending | $694M | |
| Debt | $7.7B | |
| Cash | $670M | |
| Share price | $40.09 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 4.1% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 27% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Aptiv would cost about $53.13 a share, $11.0B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $48.11 | $9.9B |
| Median | 32.5% | $53.13 | $11.0B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $60.86 | $12.6B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.53× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Aptiv's latest quarter
Aptiv, Q3 2026: revenue $3.2B (+2% year over year), operating margin 8.8%, net earnings $194M, operating cash flow $320M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Aptiv being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Aptiv?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($52.12 a share) would return about 13% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $39.86 a share (−1% against today's $40.09).
What would a takeover of Aptiv cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Aptiv would cost about $53.13 a share, $11.0B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.