Filing Flows › Antero Resources (AR) › Takeover & LBO
Is Antero Resources (AR) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($47.01 a share) would return about 13% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $39.17 a share (8% against today's $36.16). Historically 2.2% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.44× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $47.01 | today's $36.16 plus 30% |
| × shares | 308.6 million | |
| = Equity value | $14.5B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $2.8B | |
| − Cash | $0 | |
| + Other claims | $160M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $17.5B | 6.6× EBITDA of $2.6B |
| Fees | $349M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $11.3B | 4.3× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 65% of the price |
| Buyer's own money | $6.5B | 36% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $7.0B | $2.9B | $868M | $663M | $10.7B |
| Year 2 | $7.5B | $3.1B | $817M | $801M | $9.9B |
| Year 3 | $7.9B | $3.2B | $756M | $937M | $8.9B |
| Year 4 | $8.2B | $3.4B | $684M | $1.1B | $7.9B |
| Year 5 | $8.5B | $3.5B | $603M | $1.2B | $6.7B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 5.3× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $18.4B | |
| − Debt left | $6.7B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $11.7B | |
| Money multiple | 1.82× | on $6.5B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 12.7% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $36.16; the IRR reaches 20% at $39.17 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $39.78 | 19.4% |
| 20% | $43.40 | 16.0% |
| 30% | $47.01 | 12.7% |
| 40% | $50.63 | 9.4% |
| 50% | $54.25 | 6.1% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $6.5B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $2.6B | 40.9% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $862M | |
| Capital spending | $969M | |
| Debt | $2.8B | |
| Cash | $0 | |
| Share price | $36.16 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 22% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Antero Resources would cost about $47.92 a share, $14.8B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $43.40 | $13.4B |
| Median | 32.5% | $47.92 | $14.8B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $54.90 | $16.9B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.2% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.44× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Antero Resources' latest quarter
Antero Resources, Q3 2026: revenue $1.6B (+29% year over year), operating margin 25.1%, net earnings $367M, operating cash flow $575M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Antero Resources being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Antero Resources?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($47.01 a share) would return about 13% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $39.17 a share (8% against today's $36.16).
What would a takeover of Antero Resources cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Antero Resources would cost about $47.92 a share, $14.8B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.