Filing Flows › Arcbest (ARCB) › Takeover & LBO
Is Arcbest (ARCB) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($163.07 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $106.47 a share (−15% against today's $125.44). Historically 3.1% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.62× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $163.07 | today's $125.44 plus 30% |
| × shares | 22.4 million | |
| = Equity value | $3.7B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $214M | |
| − Cash | $207M | |
| = Enterprise value | $3.7B | 16.3× EBITDA of $225M |
| Fees | $73.3M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $1.2B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $2.5B | 67% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $4.7B | $243M | $94.7M | $66.2M | $1.2B |
| Year 2 | $5.0B | $260M | $89.6M | $87.5M | $1.1B |
| Year 3 | $5.3B | $274M | $82.9M | $110M | $974M |
| Year 4 | $5.5B | $285M | $74.5M | $133M | $842M |
| Year 5 | $5.7B | $294M | $64.4M | $156M | $686M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 12.5× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $3.7B | |
| − Debt left | $686M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $3.0B | |
| Money multiple | 1.20× | on $2.5B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 3.7% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $125.44; the IRR reaches 20% at $106.47 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $137.98 | 9.3% |
| 20% | $150.53 | 6.3% |
| 30% | $163.07 | 3.7% |
| 40% | $175.62 | 1.5% |
| 50% | $188.16 | −0.5% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $4.4B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $225M | 5.2% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $177M | |
| Capital spending | $43.8M | |
| Debt | $214M | |
| Cash | $207M | |
| Share price | $125.44 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 25% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Arcbest would cost about $175.62 a share, $3.9B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $143.88 | $3.2B |
| Median | 40% | $175.62 | $3.9B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $200.95 | $4.5B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.1% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.62× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Arcbest's latest quarter
Arcbest, Q3 2026: revenue $1.2B (+16% year over year), operating margin 6.1%, net earnings $51.7M, operating cash flow $117M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Arcbest being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Arcbest?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($163.07 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $106.47 a share (−15% against today's $125.44).
What would a takeover of Arcbest cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Arcbest would cost about $175.62 a share, $3.9B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.