Filing Flows › Alliance Resource Partners LP (ARLP) › Takeover & LBO
Is Alliance Resource Partners LP (ARLP) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($34.71 a share) would return a loss of about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $22.48 a share (−16% against today's $26.70). Historically 3.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.74× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $34.71 | today's $26.70 plus 30% |
| × shares | 128.7 million | |
| = Equity value | $4.5B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $669M | |
| − Cash | $84.8M | |
| = Enterprise value | $5.0B | 7.4× EBITDA of $684M |
| Fees | $101M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $3.3B | 4.8× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 65% of the price |
| Buyer's own money | $1.9B | 36% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $2.2B | $671M | $251M | $163M | $3.1B |
| Year 2 | $2.1B | $667M | $239M | $171M | $2.9B |
| Year 3 | $2.2B | $670M | $226M | $184M | $2.8B |
| Year 4 | $2.2B | $682M | $211M | $200M | $2.6B |
| Year 5 | $2.3B | $702M | $196M | $223M | $2.3B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 5.9× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $4.1B | |
| − Debt left | $2.3B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $1.8B | |
| Money multiple | 0.95× | on $1.9B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −0.9% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $26.70; the IRR reaches 20% at $22.48 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $29.37 | 8.3% |
| 20% | $32.04 | 3.7% |
| 30% | $34.71 | −0.9% |
| 40% | $37.38 | −5.9% |
| 50% | $40.05 | −11.3% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $2.2B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $684M | 31.0% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $322M | |
| Capital spending | $249M | |
| Debt | $669M | |
| Cash | $84.8M | |
| Share price | $26.70 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows -1.9% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 12% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Alliance Resource Partners LP would cost about $35.38 a share, $4.6B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $32.04 | $4.1B |
| Median | 32.5% | $35.38 | $4.6B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $40.53 | $5.2B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.74× the average). Its figures put it in decile 3 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Alliance Resource Partners LP's latest quarter
Alliance Resource Partners LP, Q3 2026: revenue $603M (+6% year over year), operating margin 24.5%, net earnings $140M, operating cash flow $253M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Alliance Resource Partners LP being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Alliance Resource Partners LP?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($34.71 a share) would return a loss of about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $22.48 a share (−16% against today's $26.70).
What would a takeover of Alliance Resource Partners LP cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Alliance Resource Partners LP would cost about $35.38 a share, $4.6B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.