Filing Flows › Arrow Electronics (ARW) › Takeover & LBO
Is Arrow Electronics (ARW) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($230.19 a share) would return about 11% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $186.76 a share (5% against today's $177.07). Historically 2.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.4× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $230.19 | today's $177.07 plus 30% |
| × shares | 51.6 million | |
| = Equity value | $11.9B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $2.8B | |
| − Cash | $216M | |
| + Other claims | $73.1M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $14.5B | 9.0× EBITDA of $1.6B |
| Fees | $290M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $8.8B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $6.0B | 40% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $42.0B | $1.7B | $675M | $432M | $8.4B |
| Year 2 | $44.9B | $1.9B | $642M | $572M | $7.8B |
| Year 3 | $47.4B | $2.0B | $598M | $717M | $7.1B |
| Year 4 | $49.4B | $2.0B | $544M | $867M | $6.2B |
| Year 5 | $50.8B | $2.1B | $477M | $1.0B | $5.2B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 7.3× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $15.3B | |
| − Debt left | $5.2B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $10.1B | |
| Money multiple | 1.70× | on $6.0B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 11.2% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $177.07; the IRR reaches 20% at $186.76 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $194.78 | 18.4% |
| 20% | $212.48 | 15.0% |
| 30% | $230.19 | 11.2% |
| 40% | $247.90 | 8.0% |
| 50% | $265.61 | 5.3% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $38.9B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $1.6B | 4.1% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $142M | |
| Capital spending | $108M | |
| Debt | $2.8B | |
| Cash | $216M | |
| Share price | $177.07 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 22% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Arrow Electronics would cost about $247.90 a share, $12.8B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $203.10 | $10.5B |
| Median | 40% | $247.90 | $12.8B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $283.67 | $14.6B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.4× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Arrow Electronics' latest quarter
Arrow Electronics, Q3 2026: revenue $10.7B (+39% year over year), operating margin 4.0%, net earnings $319M, operating cash flow −$441M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Arrow Electronics being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Arrow Electronics?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($230.19 a share) would return about 11% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $186.76 a share (5% against today's $177.07).
What would a takeover of Arrow Electronics cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Arrow Electronics would cost about $247.90 a share, $12.8B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.