Filing Flows › Arxis (ARXS) › Takeover & LBO
Is Arxis (ARXS) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($66.07 a share) would return a loss of about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $25.89 a share (−49% against today's $50.82). Historically 4.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.87× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $66.07 | today's $50.82 plus 30% |
| × shares | 427.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $28.2B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $2.7B | |
| − Cash | $494M | |
| = Enterprise value | $30.4B | 57.3× EBITDA of $531M |
| Fees | $608M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $2.9B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $28.1B | 91% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $2.0B | $547M | $223M | $249M | $2.7B |
| Year 2 | $2.0B | $563M | $204M | $280M | $2.4B |
| Year 3 | $2.1B | $580M | $183M | $312M | $2.1B |
| Year 4 | $2.2B | $597M | $159M | $347M | $1.7B |
| Year 5 | $2.2B | $615M | $132M | $385M | $1.3B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 45.0× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $27.7B | |
| − Debt left | $1.3B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $26.3B | |
| Money multiple | 0.94× | on $28.1B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −1.3% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $50.82; the IRR reaches 20% at $25.89 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $55.90 | 2.2% |
| 20% | $60.98 | 0.4% |
| 30% | $66.07 | −1.3% |
| 40% | $71.15 | −2.8% |
| 50% | $76.23 | −4.1% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $1.9B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $531M | 27.6% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $212M | |
| Capital spending | $54.0M | |
| Debt | $2.7B | |
| Cash | $494M | |
| Share price | $50.82 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 3.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 12% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Arxis would cost about $71.15 a share, $30.4B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $58.29 | $24.9B |
| Median | 40% | $71.15 | $30.4B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $81.41 | $34.8B |
The odds, from history
Historically 4.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.87× the average). Its figures put it in decile 5 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Arxis' latest quarter
Arxis, Q3 2026: revenue $564M (+36% year over year), operating margin 23.7%, net earnings $83.7M, operating cash flow $169M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Arxis being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Arxis?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($66.07 a share) would return a loss of about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $25.89 a share (−49% against today's $50.82).
What would a takeover of Arxis cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Arxis would cost about $71.15 a share, $30.4B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.