Filing Flows › ASML Holding NV (ASML) › Takeover & LBO
Is ASML Holding NV (ASML) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($1,945.19 a share) would return a loss of about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $827.85 a share (−45% against today's $1,496.30). At $747.6B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $1,945.19 | today's $1,496.30 plus 30% |
| × shares | 388.9 million | |
| = Equity value | $756.5B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $4.4B | |
| − Cash | $13.3B | |
| = Enterprise value | $747.6B | 60.6× EBITDA of $12.3B |
| Fees | $15.0B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $67.8B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $694.7B | 91% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $33.6B | $12.7B | $5.2B | $4.7B | $63.1B |
| Year 2 | $34.7B | $13.1B | $4.8B | $5.2B | $57.9B |
| Year 3 | $35.7B | $13.5B | $4.4B | $5.8B | $52.1B |
| Year 4 | $36.8B | $13.9B | $4.0B | $6.5B | $45.6B |
| Year 5 | $37.9B | $14.3B | $3.5B | $7.2B | $38.5B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 46.5× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $664.2B | |
| − Debt left | $38.5B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $625.8B | |
| Money multiple | 0.90× | on $694.7B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −2.1% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $1,496.30; the IRR reaches 20% at $827.85 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $1,645.93 | 1.7% |
| 20% | $1,795.56 | −0.3% |
| 30% | $1,945.19 | −2.1% |
| 40% | $2,094.82 | −3.7% |
| 50% | $2,244.45 | −5.1% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $32.7B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $12.3B | 37.7% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $1.0B | |
| Capital spending | $1.6B | |
| Debt | $4.4B | |
| Cash | $13.3B | |
| Share price | $1,496.30 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 3.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 18% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, ASML Holding NV would cost about $2,094.82 a share, $814.7B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $1,716.26 | $667.5B |
| Median | 40% | $2,094.82 | $814.7B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $2,397.07 | $932.2B |
ASML Holding NV's latest quarter
ASML Holding NV, Q3 2026: revenue $11.7B (+55% year over year), operating margin 42.5%, net earnings $5.0B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is ASML Holding NV being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy ASML Holding NV?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($1,945.19 a share) would return a loss of about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $827.85 a share (−45% against today's $1,496.30). At $747.6B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of ASML Holding NV cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, ASML Holding NV would cost about $2,094.82 a share, $814.7B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 9, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.