Filing Flows › Astrana Health (ASTH) › Takeover & LBO
Is Astrana Health (ASTH) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($47.49 a share) would return about 5% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $29.00 a share (−21% against today's $36.53). Historically 5.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.15× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $47.49 | today's $36.53 plus 30% |
| × shares | 49.9 million | |
| = Equity value | $2.4B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $925M | |
| − Cash | $397M | |
| + Other claims | $11.7M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $2.9B | 15.8× EBITDA of $184M |
| Fees | $58.2M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $1.0B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $2.0B | 66% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $4.2B | $199M | $77.5M | $58.2M | $955M |
| Year 2 | $4.5B | $212M | $73.0M | $73.8M | $881M |
| Year 3 | $4.8B | $224M | $67.4M | $89.9M | $791M |
| Year 4 | $5.0B | $234M | $60.5M | $106M | $685M |
| Year 5 | $5.1B | $241M | $52.4M | $122M | $563M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 12.8× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $3.1B | |
| − Debt left | $563M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $2.5B | |
| Money multiple | 1.29× | on $2.0B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 5.2% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $36.53; the IRR reaches 20% at $29.00 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $40.18 | 9.8% |
| 20% | $43.84 | 7.4% |
| 30% | $47.49 | 5.2% |
| 40% | $51.14 | 3.3% |
| 50% | $54.80 | 1.6% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $3.9B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $184M | 4.7% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $63.1M | |
| Capital spending | $14.8M | |
| Debt | $925M | |
| Cash | $397M | |
| Share price | $36.53 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 30% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Astrana Health would cost about $51.14 a share, $2.6B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $41.90 | $2.1B |
| Median | 40% | $51.14 | $2.6B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $58.52 | $2.9B |
The odds, from history
Historically 5.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.15× the average). Its figures put it in decile 7 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Astrana Health's latest quarter
Astrana Health, Q3 2026: revenue $1.0B (+7% year over year), operating margin 3.9%, net earnings $13.0M, operating cash flow $16.3M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Astrana Health being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Astrana Health?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($47.49 a share) would return about 5% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $29.00 a share (−21% against today's $36.53).
What would a takeover of Astrana Health cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Astrana Health would cost about $51.14 a share, $2.6B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.