Filing Flows › ATI (ATI) › Takeover & LBO
Is ATI (ATI) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($227.47 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $112.42 a share (−36% against today's $174.98). Historically 2.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.54× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $227.47 | today's $174.98 plus 30% |
| × shares | 138.4 million | |
| = Equity value | $31.5B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $1.9B | |
| − Cash | $442M | |
| + Other claims | $127M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $33.0B | 32.9× EBITDA of $1.0B |
| Fees | $660M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $5.5B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $28.2B | 84% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $5.4B | $1.1B | $422M | $201M | $5.3B |
| Year 2 | $5.8B | $1.2B | $407M | $256M | $5.1B |
| Year 3 | $6.1B | $1.2B | $387M | $311M | $4.8B |
| Year 4 | $6.4B | $1.3B | $363M | $364M | $4.4B |
| Year 5 | $6.5B | $1.3B | $336M | $415M | $4.0B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 25.7× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $33.6B | |
| − Debt left | $4.0B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $29.7B | |
| Money multiple | 1.05× | on $28.2B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 1.0% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $174.98; the IRR reaches 20% at $112.42 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $192.48 | 5.0% |
| 20% | $209.98 | 2.9% |
| 30% | $227.47 | 1.0% |
| 40% | $244.97 | −0.6% |
| 50% | $262.47 | −2.2% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $5.0B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $1.0B | 20.0% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $177M | |
| Capital spending | $309M | |
| Debt | $1.9B | |
| Cash | $442M | |
| Share price | $174.98 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 18% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, ATI would cost about $231.85 a share, $32.1B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $209.98 | $29.1B |
| Median | 32.5% | $231.85 | $32.1B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $265.62 | $36.8B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.54× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
ATI's latest quarter
ATI, Q3 2026: revenue $1.4B (+26% year over year), operating margin 19.1%, net earnings $190M, operating cash flow $155M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is ATI being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy ATI?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($227.47 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $112.42 a share (−36% against today's $174.98).
What would a takeover of ATI cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, ATI would cost about $231.85 a share, $32.1B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.