Filing Flows › Atkore (ATKR) › Takeover & LBO
Is Atkore (ATKR) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($123.45 a share) would return a loss of about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $53.30 a share (−44% against today's $94.96). Historically 4.5% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.89× the average). Latest signal (2026-09-09): Merger proxy (DEFM14A).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $123.45 | today's $94.96 plus 30% |
| × shares | 34.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $4.2B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $760M | |
| − Cash | $346M | |
| = Enterprise value | $4.6B | 27.6× EBITDA of $167M |
| Fees | $92.2M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $920M | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $3.8B | 80% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $3.0B | $170M | $70.4M | $31.2M | $889M |
| Year 2 | $3.0B | $173M | $68.0M | $34.6M | $854M |
| Year 3 | $3.1B | $177M | $65.3M | $38.6M | $815M |
| Year 4 | $3.2B | $182M | $62.4M | $43.3M | $772M |
| Year 5 | $3.3B | $188M | $59.1M | $48.7M | $723M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 21.8× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $4.1B | |
| − Debt left | $723M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $3.4B | |
| Money multiple | 0.89× | on $3.8B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −2.3% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $94.96; the IRR reaches 20% at $53.30 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $104.46 | 1.5% |
| 20% | $113.95 | −0.5% |
| 30% | $123.45 | −2.3% |
| 40% | $132.94 | −4.0% |
| 50% | $142.44 | −5.4% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $2.9B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $167M | 5.7% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $130M | |
| Capital spending | $62.6M | |
| Debt | $760M | |
| Cash | $346M | |
| Share price | $94.96 | on Oct 16, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 1.6% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 21% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Atkore would cost about $123.45 a share, $4.2B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 12% | $106.36 | $3.6B |
| Median | 30% | $123.45 | $4.2B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 31% | $124.40 | $4.2B |
The odds, from history
Historically 4.5% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.89× the average). Its figures put it in decile 5 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Rumors and deal signals
- 2026-09-09 · DEFM14A · Merger proxy (DEFM14A)
Atkore's latest quarter
Atkore, Q3 FY26: revenue $795M (+8% year over year), operating margin 8.1%, net earnings $745K, operating cash flow −$63.1M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Atkore being acquired?
The latest signal on file is from 2026-09-09: Merger proxy (DEFM14A). A headline is not a deal; Filing Flows lists the news, 8-K filings and 13D filings about a sale.
Could private equity buy Atkore?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($123.45 a share) would return a loss of about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $53.30 a share (−44% against today's $94.96).
What would a takeover of Atkore cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Atkore would cost about $123.45 a share, $4.2B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.