Filing Flows › Atmos Energy (ATO) › Takeover & LBO
Is Atmos Energy (ATO) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($224.13 a share) would return a loss of about 12% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $64.08 a share (−63% against today's $172.41). Historically 2.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.45× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $224.13 | today's $172.41 plus 30% |
| × shares | 169.4 million | |
| = Equity value | $38.0B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $10.3B | |
| − Cash | $521M | |
| = Enterprise value | $47.8B | 18.4× EBITDA of $2.6B |
| Fees | $955M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $14.3B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $34.4B | 71% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $5.2B | $2.8B | $1.1B | −$2.8B | $17.1B |
| Year 2 | $5.5B | $2.9B | $1.3B | −$3.1B | $20.2B |
| Year 3 | $5.8B | $3.1B | $1.5B | −$3.4B | $23.6B |
| Year 4 | $6.0B | $3.2B | $1.8B | −$3.7B | $27.3B |
| Year 5 | $6.2B | $3.3B | $2.1B | −$4.0B | $31.3B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 15.0× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $49.1B | |
| − Debt left | $31.3B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $17.9B | |
| Money multiple | 0.52× | on $34.4B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −12.3% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $172.41; the IRR reaches 20% at $64.08 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $189.65 | −8.9% |
| 20% | $206.89 | −10.7% |
| 30% | $224.13 | −12.3% |
| 40% | $241.37 | −13.7% |
| 50% | $258.62 | −15.1% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $4.9B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $2.6B | 52.8% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $778M | |
| Capital spending | $4.0B | |
| Debt | $10.3B | |
| Cash | $521M | |
| Share price | $172.41 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 6.5% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 20% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Atmos Energy would cost about $228.44 a share, $38.7B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $206.89 | $35.0B |
| Median | 32.5% | $228.44 | $38.7B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $261.72 | $44.3B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.45× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Atmos Energy's latest quarter
Atmos Energy, Q3 FY26: revenue $879M (+5% year over year), operating margin 36.4%, net earnings $243M, operating cash flow $640M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Atmos Energy being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Atmos Energy?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($224.13 a share) would return a loss of about 12% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $64.08 a share (−63% against today's $172.41).
What would a takeover of Atmos Energy cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Atmos Energy would cost about $228.44 a share, $38.7B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.