Filing Flows › Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) › Takeover & LBO
Is Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($21.36 a share) would return about 6% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. Historically 5.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.06× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $21.36 | today's $16.43 plus 30% |
| × shares | 135.2 million | |
| = Equity value | $2.9B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $0 | |
| − Cash | $180M | |
| = Enterprise value | $2.7B | 15.4× EBITDA of $176M |
| Fees | $54.1M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $967M | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $1.8B | 65% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $347M | $190M | $73.9M | $102M | $865M |
| Year 2 | $371M | $203M | $66.1M | $120M | $744M |
| Year 3 | $391M | $214M | $56.9M | $139M | $605M |
| Year 4 | $408M | $223M | $46.3M | $157M | $449M |
| Year 5 | $420M | $230M | $34.3M | $174M | $275M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 11.6× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $2.7B | |
| − Debt left | $275M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $2.4B | |
| Money multiple | 1.33× | on $1.8B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 5.9% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $16.43.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $18.07 | 12.2% |
| 20% | $19.72 | 8.8% |
| 30% | $21.36 | 5.9% |
| 40% | $23.00 | 3.4% |
| 50% | $24.64 | 1.2% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $322M | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $176M | 54.6% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $19.4M | |
| Debt | $0 | |
| Cash | $180M | |
| Share price | $16.43 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 12% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Aurinia Pharmaceuticals would cost about $22.18 a share, $3.0B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 22% | $20.04 | $2.7B |
| Median | 35% | $22.18 | $3.0B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 45% | $23.82 | $3.2B |
The odds, from history
Historically 5.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.06× the average). Its figures put it in decile 6 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' latest quarter
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals, Q3 2026: revenue $83.7M (+14% year over year), operating margin 42.3%, net earnings $31.7M, operating cash flow $46.4M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Aurinia Pharmaceuticals being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Aurinia Pharmaceuticals?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($21.36 a share) would return about 6% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
What would a takeover of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Aurinia Pharmaceuticals would cost about $22.18 a share, $3.0B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.