Filing Flows › Avista (AVA) › Takeover & LBO
Is Avista (AVA) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($48.84 a share) would return a loss of all the money the buyer puts in to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $16.19 a share (−57% against today's $37.57). Historically 4.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.85× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $48.84 | today's $37.57 plus 30% |
| × shares | 83.8 million | |
| = Equity value | $4.1B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $331M | |
| − Cash | $32.0M | |
| = Enterprise value | $4.4B | 6.8× EBITDA of $649M |
| Fees | $87.8M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $2.9B | 4.4× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 65% of the price |
| Buyer's own money | $1.6B | 36% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.9B | $640M | $218M | −$288M | $3.1B |
| Year 2 | $1.9B | $638M | $240M | −$307M | $3.5B |
| Year 3 | $1.9B | $643M | $264M | −$330M | $3.8B |
| Year 4 | $2.0B | $656M | $289M | −$356M | $4.1B |
| Year 5 | $2.0B | $675M | $317M | −$386M | $4.5B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 5.3× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $3.6B | |
| − Debt left | $4.5B | |
| = Buyer's equity | −$935M | |
| Money multiple | -0.58× | on $1.6B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −100.0% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $37.57; the IRR reaches 20% at $16.19 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $41.33 | −100.0% |
| 20% | $45.08 | −100.0% |
| 30% | $48.84 | −100.0% |
| 40% | $52.60 | −100.0% |
| 50% | $56.36 | −100.0% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $1.9B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $649M | 33.5% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $283M | |
| Capital spending | $702M | |
| Debt | $331M | |
| Cash | $32.0M | |
| Share price | $37.57 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows -1.4% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 12% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Avista would cost about $49.78 a share, $4.2B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $45.08 | $3.8B |
| Median | 32.5% | $49.78 | $4.2B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $57.03 | $4.8B |
The odds, from history
Historically 4.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.85× the average). Its figures put it in decile 4 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Avista's latest quarter
Avista, Q3 2026: revenue $421M (+4% year over year), operating margin 15.7%, net earnings $49.0M, operating cash flow $134M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Avista being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Avista?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($48.84 a share) would return a loss of all the money the buyer puts in to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $16.19 a share (−57% against today's $37.57).
What would a takeover of Avista cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Avista would cost about $49.78 a share, $4.2B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.