Filing Flows › AeroVironment (AVAV) › Takeover & LBO
Is AeroVironment (AVAV) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout does not work for AeroVironment on its latest figures: it has no positive EBITDA to borrow against (−$21.8M over the last 12 months, on revenue of $2.0B). Historically 5.1% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.02× the average).
Why a leveraged buyout does not fit
A leveraged buyout is paid for mostly with debt that the company's own cash flow repays. AeroVironment's EBITDA over the last 12 months was −$21.8M on revenue of $2.0B, so there is nothing to lend against and nothing to repay a loan with: a buyer would have to pay almost entirely with its own money. That is the kind of deal another company — a strategic buyer that wants the products, the pipeline or the technology — makes, not a private-equity fund. The model therefore gives no buyout price.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, AeroVironment would cost about $176.55 a share, $8.8B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $144.65 | $7.2B |
| Median | 40% | $176.55 | $8.8B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $202.03 | $10.1B |
The odds, from history
Historically 5.1% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.02× the average). Its figures put it in decile 6 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
AeroVironment's latest quarter
AeroVironment, Q1 FY27: revenue $480M (+6% year over year), operating margin -2.3%, net loss $5.1M, operating cash flow $13.5M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is AeroVironment being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy AeroVironment?
A leveraged buyout does not work for AeroVironment on its latest figures: it has no positive EBITDA to borrow against (−$21.8M over the last 12 months, on revenue of $2.0B). With no cash flow to repay a loan, a buyer would pay almost entirely with its own money: a deal for another company (a strategic buyer), not for a private-equity fund.
What would a takeover of AeroVironment cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, AeroVironment would cost about $176.55 a share, $8.8B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.