Filing Flows › Mission Produce (AVO) › Takeover & LBO
Is Mission Produce (AVO) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($14.95 a share) would return a loss of about 6% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $4.01 a share (−65% against today's $11.50). Historically 3.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.65× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $14.95 | today's $11.50 plus 30% |
| × shares | 82.8 million | |
| = Equity value | $1.2B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $400M | |
| − Cash | $47.1M | |
| + Other claims | $35.8M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $1.6B | 24.9× EBITDA of $65.3M |
| Fees | $32.6M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $359M | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $1.3B | 78% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.3B | $63.3M | $27.5M | −$6.4M | $366M |
| Year 2 | $1.3B | $62.4M | $28.0M | −$7.2M | $373M |
| Year 3 | $1.3B | $62.4M | $28.5M | −$7.8M | $381M |
| Year 4 | $1.3B | $63.3M | $29.1M | −$10.0M | $391M |
| Year 5 | $1.3B | $65.2M | $29.9M | −$12.1M | $403M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 20.5× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $1.3B | |
| − Debt left | $403M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $938M | |
| Money multiple | 0.72× | on $1.3B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −6.3% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $11.50; the IRR reaches 20% at $4.01 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $12.65 | −3.3% |
| 20% | $13.80 | −4.9% |
| 30% | $14.95 | −6.3% |
| 40% | $16.10 | −7.7% |
| 50% | $17.25 | −8.9% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $1.3B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $65.3M | 4.9% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $41.3M | |
| Capital spending | $43.6M | |
| Debt | $400M | |
| Cash | $47.1M | |
| Share price | $11.50 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows -3.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 30% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Mission Produce would cost about $15.24 a share, $1.3B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $13.80 | $1.1B |
| Median | 32.5% | $15.24 | $1.3B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $17.46 | $1.4B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.65× the average). Its figures put it in decile 3 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Mission Produce's latest quarter
Mission Produce, Q3 FY26: revenue $450M (+26% year over year), operating margin 0.1%, net loss $5.8M, operating cash flow −$4.9M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Mission Produce being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Mission Produce?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($14.95 a share) would return a loss of about 6% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $4.01 a share (−65% against today's $11.50).
What would a takeover of Mission Produce cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Mission Produce would cost about $15.24 a share, $1.3B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.