Filing Flows › Baxter International (BAX) › Takeover & LBO
Is Baxter International (BAX) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($33.40 a share) would return a loss of about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $9.09 a share (−65% against today's $25.70). It already carries 10.2× EBITDA in net debt (the model flags anything over 6×), so a buyer could add little debt of its own. Historically 4.2% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.83× the average). Latest signal (2026-10-29): BAXTER REPORTS THIRD-QUARTER 2026 RESULTS.
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $33.40 | today's $25.70 plus 30% |
| × shares | 520.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $17.4B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $9.4B | |
| − Cash | $2.0B | |
| + Other claims | −$27.0M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $24.8B | 33.8× EBITDA of $734M |
| Fees | $496M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $4.0B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $21.3B | 84% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $12.2B | $773M | $309M | −$138M | $4.2B |
| Year 2 | $12.8B | $810M | $319M | −$134M | $4.3B |
| Year 3 | $13.3B | $844M | $330M | −$129M | $4.4B |
| Year 4 | $13.8B | $874M | $339M | −$124M | $4.6B |
| Year 5 | $14.2B | $900M | $349M | −$119M | $4.7B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 28.3× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $25.5B | |
| − Debt left | $4.7B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $20.8B | |
| Money multiple | 0.98× | on $21.3B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −0.4% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $25.70; the IRR reaches 20% at $9.09 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $28.26 | 2.3% |
| 20% | $30.83 | 0.9% |
| 30% | $33.40 | −0.4% |
| 40% | $35.97 | −1.6% |
| 50% | $38.54 | −2.8% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $11.6B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $734M | 6.3% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $955M | |
| Capital spending | $513M | |
| Debt | $9.4B | |
| Cash | $2.0B | |
| Share price | $25.70 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 5.3% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 21% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Baxter International would cost about $34.69 a share, $18.0B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 22% | $31.35 | $16.3B |
| Median | 35% | $34.69 | $18.0B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 45% | $37.26 | $19.4B |
The odds, from history
Historically 4.2% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.83× the average). Its figures put it in decile 4 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Rumors and deal signals
- 2026-10-29 · 8-K deal · BAXTER REPORTS THIRD-QUARTER 2026 RESULTS
Baxter International's latest quarter
Baxter International, Q3 2026: revenue $3.0B (+5% year over year), operating margin 7.6%, net earnings $294M, operating cash flow $558M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Baxter International being acquired?
The latest signal on file is from 2026-10-29: BAXTER REPORTS THIRD-QUARTER 2026 RESULTS. A headline is not a deal; Filing Flows lists the news, 8-K filings and 13D filings about a sale.
Could private equity buy Baxter International?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($33.40 a share) would return a loss of about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $9.09 a share (−65% against today's $25.70). It already carries 10.2× EBITDA in net debt (the model flags anything over 6×), so a buyer could add little debt of its own.
What would a takeover of Baxter International cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Baxter International would cost about $34.69 a share, $18.0B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.