Filing Flows › Blackberry (BB) › Takeover & LBO
Is Blackberry (BB) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($10.98 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. Historically 4.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.88× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $10.98 | today's $8.45 plus 30% |
| × shares | 649.7 million | |
| = Equity value | $7.1B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $197M | |
| − Cash | $378M | |
| = Enterprise value | $7.0B | 69.9× EBITDA of $99.4M |
| Fees | $139M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $547M | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $6.5B | 92% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $663M | $107M | $41.8M | $48.1M | $499M |
| Year 2 | $708M | $115M | $38.1M | $57.8M | $441M |
| Year 3 | $747M | $121M | $33.7M | $67.6M | $373M |
| Year 4 | $779M | $126M | $28.5M | $77.1M | $296M |
| Year 5 | $802M | $130M | $22.6M | $86.3M | $210M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 53.4× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $6.9B | |
| − Debt left | $210M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $6.7B | |
| Money multiple | 1.03× | on $6.5B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 0.5% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $8.45.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $9.29 | 4.4% |
| 20% | $10.14 | 2.3% |
| 30% | $10.98 | 0.5% |
| 40% | $11.82 | −1.1% |
| 50% | $12.67 | −2.6% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $614M | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $99.4M | 16.2% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $15.7M | |
| Capital spending | $6.2M | |
| Debt | $197M | |
| Cash | $378M | |
| Share price | $8.45 | on Oct 13, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 12% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Blackberry would cost about $10.98 a share, $7.1B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 12% | $9.46 | $6.1B |
| Median | 30% | $10.98 | $7.1B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 31% | $11.06 | $7.2B |
The odds, from history
Historically 4.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.88× the average). Its figures put it in decile 5 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Blackberry's latest quarter
Blackberry, Q2 FY27: revenue $163M (+26% year over year), operating margin 20.6%, net earnings $33.9M, operating cash flow $29.3M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Blackberry being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Blackberry?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($10.98 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
What would a takeover of Blackberry cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Blackberry would cost about $10.98 a share, $7.1B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.