Filing Flows › Boise Cascade (BCC) › Takeover & LBO
Is Boise Cascade (BCC) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($92.56 a share) would return a loss of about 5% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $57.24 a share (−20% against today's $71.20). Historically 2.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.56× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $92.56 | today's $71.20 plus 30% |
| × shares | 35.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $3.2B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $449M | |
| − Cash | $385M | |
| = Enterprise value | $3.3B | 9.5× EBITDA of $349M |
| Fees | $66.1M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $1.9B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $1.4B | 43% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $6.7B | $354M | $147M | $41.4M | $1.9B |
| Year 2 | $6.8B | $360M | $144M | $43.2M | $1.8B |
| Year 3 | $6.9B | $367M | $141M | $45.7M | $1.8B |
| Year 4 | $7.1B | $377M | $137M | $49.0M | $1.7B |
| Year 5 | $7.3B | $388M | $133M | $53.0M | $1.7B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 7.3× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $2.8B | |
| − Debt left | $1.7B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $1.1B | |
| Money multiple | 0.79× | on $1.4B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −4.5% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $71.20; the IRR reaches 20% at $57.24 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $78.32 | 4.2% |
| 20% | $85.44 | −0.8% |
| 30% | $92.56 | −4.5% |
| 40% | $99.68 | −7.6% |
| 50% | $106.80 | −10.1% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $6.6B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $349M | 5.3% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $166M | |
| Capital spending | $144M | |
| Debt | $449M | |
| Cash | $385M | |
| Share price | $71.20 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 1.2% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 28% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Boise Cascade would cost about $99.68 a share, $3.5B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $81.67 | $2.9B |
| Median | 40% | $99.68 | $3.5B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $114.06 | $4.0B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.56× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Boise Cascade's latest quarter
Boise Cascade, Q3 2026: revenue $1.8B (+8% year over year), operating margin 3.1%, net earnings $36.4M, operating cash flow $120M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Boise Cascade being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Boise Cascade?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($92.56 a share) would return a loss of about 5% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $57.24 a share (−20% against today's $71.20).
What would a takeover of Boise Cascade cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Boise Cascade would cost about $99.68 a share, $3.5B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.