Filing Flows › Brinks (BCO) › Takeover & LBO
Is Brinks (BCO) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($143.00 a share) would return about 10% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $108.98 a share (−1% against today's $110.00). Historically 6.5% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.3× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $143.00 | today's $110.00 plus 30% |
| × shares | 41.5 million | |
| = Equity value | $5.9B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $4.4B | |
| − Cash | $1.6B | |
| + Other claims | $84.7M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $8.9B | 10.2× EBITDA of $872M |
| Fees | $177M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $4.8B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $4.2B | 47% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $5.9B | $935M | $367M | $309M | $4.5B |
| Year 2 | $6.3B | $993M | $343M | $370M | $4.1B |
| Year 3 | $6.6B | $1.0B | $315M | $432M | $3.7B |
| Year 4 | $6.9B | $1.1B | $282M | $493M | $3.2B |
| Year 5 | $7.1B | $1.1B | $244M | $551M | $2.6B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 8.6× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $9.6B | |
| − Debt left | $2.6B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $7.0B | |
| Money multiple | 1.64× | on $4.2B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 10.5% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $110.00; the IRR reaches 20% at $108.98 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $121.00 | 16.1% |
| 20% | $132.00 | 13.1% |
| 30% | $143.00 | 10.5% |
| 40% | $154.00 | 8.2% |
| 50% | $165.00 | 6.2% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $5.5B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $872M | 15.8% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $317M | |
| Capital spending | $160M | |
| Debt | $4.4B | |
| Cash | $1.6B | |
| Share price | $110.00 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 7.3% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 21% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Brinks would cost about $154.00 a share, $6.4B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $126.17 | $5.2B |
| Median | 40% | $154.00 | $6.4B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $176.22 | $7.3B |
The odds, from history
Historically 6.5% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.3× the average). Its figures put it in decile 8 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Brinks' latest quarter
Brinks, Q3 2026: revenue $1.4B (+3% year over year), operating margin 9.5%, net earnings $14.5M, operating cash flow $89.6M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Brinks being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Brinks?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($143.00 a share) would return about 10% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $108.98 a share (−1% against today's $110.00).
What would a takeover of Brinks cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Brinks would cost about $154.00 a share, $6.4B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.