Filing Flows › Belden (BDC) › Takeover & LBO
Is Belden (BDC) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($137.41 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $66.12 a share (−37% against today's $105.70). Historically 4.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.94× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $137.41 | today's $105.70 plus 30% |
| × shares | 39.1 million | |
| = Equity value | $5.4B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $3.1B | |
| − Cash | $381M | |
| = Enterprise value | $8.0B | 17.4× EBITDA of $462M |
| Fees | $161M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $2.5B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $5.7B | 69% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $3.4B | $499M | $195M | $80.9M | $2.5B |
| Year 2 | $3.6B | $533M | $188M | $107M | $2.4B |
| Year 3 | $3.8B | $563M | $180M | $134M | $2.2B |
| Year 4 | $4.0B | $586M | $170M | $160M | $2.1B |
| Year 5 | $4.1B | $604M | $158M | $185M | $1.9B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 14.7× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $8.9B | |
| − Debt left | $1.9B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $7.0B | |
| Money multiple | 1.24× | on $5.7B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 4.4% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $105.70; the IRR reaches 20% at $66.12 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $116.27 | 7.8% |
| 20% | $126.84 | 6.0% |
| 30% | $137.41 | 4.4% |
| 40% | $147.98 | 2.9% |
| 50% | $158.55 | 1.5% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $3.1B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $462M | 14.8% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $181M | |
| Capital spending | $172M | |
| Debt | $3.1B | |
| Cash | $381M | |
| Share price | $105.70 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 12% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Belden would cost about $140.05 a share, $5.5B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $126.84 | $5.0B |
| Median | 32.5% | $140.05 | $5.5B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $160.45 | $6.3B |
The odds, from history
Historically 4.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.94× the average). Its figures put it in decile 5 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Belden's latest quarter
Belden, Q3 2026: revenue $966M (+38% year over year), operating margin 1.7%, net loss $11.4M, operating cash flow $130M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Belden being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Belden?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($137.41 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $66.12 a share (−37% against today's $105.70).
What would a takeover of Belden cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Belden would cost about $140.05 a share, $5.5B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.