Filing Flows › B&G Foods (BGS) › Takeover & LBO
Is B&G Foods (BGS) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($3.02 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. It already carries 15.4× EBITDA in net debt (the model flags anything over 6×), so a buyer could add little debt of its own. Historically 4.9% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.98× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $3.02 | today's $2.32 plus 30% |
| × shares | 81.2 million | |
| = Equity value | $245M | |
| + Debt refinanced | $2.5B | |
| − Cash | $592M | |
| = Enterprise value | $2.2B | 17.4× EBITDA of $125M |
| Fees | $43.5M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $688M | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $1.5B | 69% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.7B | $121M | $52.6M | $42.7M | $645M |
| Year 2 | $1.7B | $119M | $49.4M | $44.1M | $601M |
| Year 3 | $1.7B | $119M | $46.0M | $46.7M | $554M |
| Year 4 | $1.7B | $121M | $42.4M | $48.2M | $506M |
| Year 5 | $1.8B | $125M | $38.7M | $51.1M | $455M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 16.9× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $2.1B | |
| − Debt left | $455M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $1.7B | |
| Money multiple | 1.09× | on $1.5B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 1.6% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $2.32.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $2.55 | 2.2% |
| 20% | $2.78 | 1.9% |
| 30% | $3.02 | 1.6% |
| 40% | $3.25 | 1.4% |
| 50% | $3.48 | 1.1% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $1.8B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $125M | 7.1% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $62.2M | |
| Capital spending | $24.9M | |
| Debt | $2.5B | |
| Cash | $592M | |
| Share price | $2.32 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows -3.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 21% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, B&G Foods would cost about $3.07 a share, $250M for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $2.78 | $226M |
| Median | 32.5% | $3.07 | $250M |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $3.52 | $286M |
The odds, from history
Historically 4.9% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.98× the average). Its figures put it in decile 6 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
B&G Foods' latest quarter
B&G Foods, Q2 2026: revenue $383M (-10% year over year), operating margin 9.0%, net loss $4.0M, operating cash flow $34.4M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is B&G Foods being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy B&G Foods?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($3.02 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. It already carries 15.4× EBITDA in net debt (the model flags anything over 6×), so a buyer could add little debt of its own.
What would a takeover of B&G Foods cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, B&G Foods would cost about $3.07 a share, $250M for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.