Filing Flows › BJs Restaurants (BJRI) › Takeover & LBO
Is BJs Restaurants (BJRI) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($81.29 a share) would return a loss of about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $49.48 a share (−21% against today's $62.53). Historically 3.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.75× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $81.29 | today's $62.53 plus 30% |
| × shares | 22.6 million | |
| = Equity value | $1.8B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $16.0M | |
| − Cash | $12.9M | |
| = Enterprise value | $1.8B | 14.1× EBITDA of $131M |
| Fees | $36.8M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $718M | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $1.2B | 62% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.5B | $137M | $54.9M | $1.3M | $717M |
| Year 2 | $1.6B | $144M | $54.8M | $4.9M | $712M |
| Year 3 | $1.7B | $150M | $54.4M | $8.6M | $703M |
| Year 4 | $1.7B | $155M | $53.8M | $12.4M | $691M |
| Year 5 | $1.8B | $160M | $52.8M | $16.0M | $675M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 10.8× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $1.7B | |
| − Debt left | $675M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $1.1B | |
| Money multiple | 0.91× | on $1.2B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −1.8% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $62.53; the IRR reaches 20% at $49.48 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $68.78 | 4.0% |
| 20% | $75.04 | 0.9% |
| 30% | $81.29 | −1.8% |
| 40% | $87.54 | −4.1% |
| 50% | $93.80 | −6.1% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $1.5B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $131M | 8.9% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $85.1M | |
| Capital spending | $69.8M | |
| Debt | $16.0M | |
| Cash | $12.9M | |
| Share price | $62.53 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 5.3% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 12% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, BJs Restaurants would cost about $82.85 a share, $1.9B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $75.04 | $1.7B |
| Median | 32.5% | $82.85 | $1.9B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $94.92 | $2.1B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.75× the average). Its figures put it in decile 3 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
BJs Restaurants' latest quarter
BJs Restaurants, Q3 2026: revenue $359M (+9% year over year), operating margin 1.5%, net earnings $5.3M, operating cash flow $41.7M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is BJs Restaurants being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy BJs Restaurants?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($81.29 a share) would return a loss of about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $49.48 a share (−21% against today's $62.53).
What would a takeover of BJs Restaurants cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, BJs Restaurants would cost about $82.85 a share, $1.9B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.