Filing Flows › Booking Holdings (BKNG) › Takeover & LBO
Is Booking Holdings (BKNG) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($219.34 a share) would return about 5% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $143.22 a share (−15% against today's $168.72). At $168.1B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 1.9% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.38× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $219.34 | today's $168.72 plus 30% |
| × shares | 753.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $165.2B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $18.7B | |
| − Cash | $15.8B | |
| = Enterprise value | $168.1B | 17.1× EBITDA of $9.8B |
| Fees | $3.4B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $54.0B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $117.5B | 69% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $30.4B | $10.6B | $4.1B | $4.6B | $49.4B |
| Year 2 | $32.4B | $11.3B | $3.8B | $5.4B | $44.0B |
| Year 3 | $34.2B | $11.9B | $3.4B | $6.2B | $37.7B |
| Year 4 | $35.7B | $12.4B | $2.9B | $7.0B | $30.7B |
| Year 5 | $36.7B | $12.8B | $2.3B | $7.8B | $22.9B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 13.2× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $169.7B | |
| − Debt left | $22.9B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $146.8B | |
| Money multiple | 1.25× | on $117.5B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 4.6% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $168.72; the IRR reaches 20% at $143.22 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $185.59 | 9.9% |
| 20% | $202.46 | 7.0% |
| 30% | $219.34 | 4.6% |
| 40% | $236.21 | 2.4% |
| 50% | $253.08 | 0.5% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $28.1B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $9.8B | 34.9% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $594M | |
| Capital spending | $324M | |
| Debt | $18.7B | |
| Cash | $15.8B | |
| Share price | $168.72 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 22% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Booking Holdings would cost about $236.21 a share, $177.9B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $193.52 | $145.7B |
| Median | 40% | $236.21 | $177.9B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $270.29 | $203.5B |
The odds, from history
Historically 1.9% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.38× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Booking Holdings' latest quarter
Booking Holdings, Q3 2026: revenue $8.9B (-1% year over year), operating margin 38.4%, net earnings $2.7B, operating cash flow $1.1B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Booking Holdings being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Booking Holdings?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($219.34 a share) would return about 5% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $143.22 a share (−15% against today's $168.72). At $168.1B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of Booking Holdings cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Booking Holdings would cost about $236.21 a share, $177.9B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.