Filing Flows › BKV (BKV) › Takeover & LBO
Is BKV (BKV) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($27.21 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $16.39 a share (−22% against today's $20.93). Historically 4.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.92× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $27.21 | today's $20.93 plus 30% |
| × shares | 109.4 million | |
| = Equity value | $3.0B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $2.0B | |
| − Cash | $620M | |
| + Other claims | $150M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $4.5B | 7.6× EBITDA of $591M |
| Fees | $90.3M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $2.9B | 5.0× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 65% of the price |
| Buyer's own money | $1.7B | 36% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.5B | $639M | $224M | −$28.7M | $3.0B |
| Year 2 | $1.6B | $682M | $227M | −$18.1M | $3.0B |
| Year 3 | $1.7B | $719M | $228M | −$8.1M | $3.0B |
| Year 4 | $1.8B | $750M | $229M | $1.1M | $3.0B |
| Year 5 | $1.8B | $772M | $229M | $9.0M | $3.0B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 6.5× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $5.0B | |
| − Debt left | $3.0B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $2.0B | |
| Money multiple | 1.21× | on $1.7B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 3.9% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $20.93; the IRR reaches 20% at $16.39 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $23.02 | 10.1% |
| 20% | $25.12 | 7.0% |
| 30% | $27.21 | 3.9% |
| 40% | $29.30 | 0.7% |
| 50% | $31.39 | −2.6% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $1.4B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $591M | 42.1% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $213M | |
| Capital spending | $370M | |
| Debt | $2.0B | |
| Cash | $620M | |
| Share price | $20.93 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 17% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, BKV would cost about $27.73 a share, $3.0B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $25.12 | $2.7B |
| Median | 32.5% | $27.73 | $3.0B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $31.77 | $3.5B |
The odds, from history
Historically 4.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.92× the average). Its figures put it in decile 5 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
BKV's latest quarter
BKV, Q3 2026: revenue $390M (+37% year over year), operating margin 17.2%, net earnings $29.4M, operating cash flow $164M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is BKV being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy BKV?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($27.21 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $16.39 a share (−22% against today's $20.93).
What would a takeover of BKV cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, BKV would cost about $27.73 a share, $3.0B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.