Filing Flows › Blackline (BL) › Takeover & LBO
Is Blackline (BL) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($38.74 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. Historically 3.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.76× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $38.74 | today's $29.80 plus 30% |
| × shares | 68.6 million | |
| = Equity value | $2.7B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $0 | |
| − Cash | $528M | |
| = Enterprise value | $2.1B | 26.7× EBITDA of $79.8M |
| Fees | $42.6M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $439M | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $1.7B | 80% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $791M | $86.2M | $33.6M | $40.9M | $398M |
| Year 2 | $844M | $92.0M | $30.4M | $48.4M | $349M |
| Year 3 | $891M | $97.0M | $26.7M | $55.8M | $294M |
| Year 4 | $929M | $101M | $22.5M | $63.0M | $231M |
| Year 5 | $957M | $104M | $17.6M | $69.9M | $161M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 19.0× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $2.0B | |
| − Debt left | $161M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $1.8B | |
| Money multiple | 1.05× | on $1.7B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 1.0% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $29.80.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $32.78 | 6.7% |
| 20% | $35.76 | 3.6% |
| 30% | $38.74 | 1.0% |
| 40% | $41.72 | −1.3% |
| 50% | $44.70 | −3.3% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $732M | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $79.8M | 10.9% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $48.1M | |
| Capital spending | $5.2M | |
| Debt | $0 | |
| Cash | $528M | |
| Share price | $29.80 | on Oct 16, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 30% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Blackline would cost about $38.74 a share, $2.7B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 12% | $33.38 | $2.3B |
| Median | 30% | $38.74 | $2.7B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 31% | $39.04 | $2.7B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.76× the average). Its figures put it in decile 4 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Blackline's latest quarter
Blackline, Q3 2026: revenue $193M (+8% year over year), operating margin 8.6%, net earnings $10.6M, operating cash flow $67.1M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Blackline being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Blackline?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($38.74 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
What would a takeover of Blackline cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Blackline would cost about $38.74 a share, $2.7B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.