Filing Flows › Blue Bird (BLBD) › Takeover & LBO
Is Blue Bird (BLBD) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($72.67 a share) would return about 7% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $55.06 a share (−2% against today's $55.90). Historically 4.1% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.82× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $72.67 | today's $55.90 plus 30% |
| × shares | 35.2 million | |
| = Equity value | $2.6B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $86.8M | |
| − Cash | $117M | |
| = Enterprise value | $2.5B | 12.0× EBITDA of $211M |
| Fees | $50.5M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $1.2B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $1.4B | 55% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.7B | $227M | $88.6M | $81.1M | $1.1B |
| Year 2 | $1.9B | $243M | $82.4M | $99.2M | $977M |
| Year 3 | $2.0B | $256M | $74.8M | $117M | $860M |
| Year 4 | $2.0B | $267M | $65.8M | $135M | $725M |
| Year 5 | $2.1B | $275M | $55.4M | $153M | $572M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 9.2× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $2.5B | |
| − Debt left | $572M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $2.0B | |
| Money multiple | 1.38× | on $1.4B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 6.6% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $55.90; the IRR reaches 20% at $55.06 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $61.49 | 14.0% |
| 20% | $67.08 | 9.9% |
| 30% | $72.67 | 6.6% |
| 40% | $78.26 | 3.9% |
| 50% | $83.85 | 1.5% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $1.6B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $211M | 13.1% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $20.7M | |
| Capital spending | $27.4M | |
| Debt | $86.8M | |
| Cash | $117M | |
| Share price | $55.90 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 13% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Blue Bird would cost about $74.07 a share, $2.6B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $67.08 | $2.4B |
| Median | 32.5% | $74.07 | $2.6B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $84.86 | $3.0B |
The odds, from history
Historically 4.1% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.82× the average). Its figures put it in decile 4 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Blue Bird's latest quarter
Blue Bird, Q3 FY26: revenue $517M (+30% year over year), operating margin 12.1%, net earnings $185M, operating cash flow $31.0M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Blue Bird being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Blue Bird?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($72.67 a share) would return about 7% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $55.06 a share (−2% against today's $55.90).
What would a takeover of Blue Bird cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Blue Bird would cost about $74.07 a share, $2.6B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.