Filing Flows › BlackRock (BLK) › Takeover & LBO
Is BlackRock (BLK) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($1,521.91 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $896.26 a share (−23% against today's $1,170.70). At $250.4B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 2.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.45× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $1,521.91 | today's $1,170.70 plus 30% |
| × shares | 164.5 million | |
| = Equity value | $250.4B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $12.7B | |
| − Cash | $12.9B | |
| + Other claims | $227M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $250.4B | 23.2× EBITDA of $10.8B |
| Fees | $5.0B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $59.3B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $196.1B | 77% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $30.8B | $11.6B | $4.5B | $5.1B | $54.2B |
| Year 2 | $32.9B | $12.4B | $4.1B | $6.0B | $48.1B |
| Year 3 | $34.7B | $13.1B | $3.7B | $6.9B | $41.2B |
| Year 4 | $36.2B | $13.7B | $3.2B | $7.8B | $33.4B |
| Year 5 | $37.3B | $14.1B | $2.6B | $8.6B | $24.8B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 17.9× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $251.6B | |
| − Debt left | $24.8B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $226.8B | |
| Money multiple | 1.16× | on $196.1B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 3.0% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $1,170.70; the IRR reaches 20% at $896.26 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $1,287.77 | 7.7% |
| 20% | $1,404.84 | 5.1% |
| 30% | $1,521.91 | 3.0% |
| 40% | $1,638.98 | 1.0% |
| 50% | $1,756.05 | −0.7% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $28.5B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $10.8B | 37.8% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $1.5B | |
| Capital spending | $446M | |
| Debt | $12.7B | |
| Cash | $12.9B | |
| Share price | $1,170.70 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 23% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 14.9% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 9.5% to 33.6%), according to the 17 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, BlackRock would cost about $1,345.13 a share, $221.3B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 9.5% | $1,281.92 | $210.9B |
| Median | 14.9% | $1,345.13 | $221.3B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 33.6% | $1,564.06 | $257.3B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.45× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
BlackRock's latest quarter
BlackRock, Q3 2026: revenue $7.8B (+19% year over year), operating margin 30.0%, net earnings $1.7B, operating cash flow $2.7B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is BlackRock being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy BlackRock?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($1,521.91 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $896.26 a share (−23% against today's $1,170.70). At $250.4B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of BlackRock cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 14.9% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 9.5% to 33.6%), according to the 17 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, BlackRock would cost about $1,345.13 a share, $221.3B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.