Filing Flows › Bloomin' Brands (BLMN) › Takeover & LBO
Is Bloomin' Brands (BLMN) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($12.97 a share) would return a loss of about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $6.49 a share (−35% against today's $9.97). Historically 5.5% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.1× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $12.97 | today's $9.97 plus 30% |
| × shares | 85.6 million | |
| = Equity value | $1.1B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $768M | |
| − Cash | $90.7M | |
| + Other claims | $3.2M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $1.8B | 6.3× EBITDA of $283M |
| Fees | $35.8M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $1.2B | 4.1× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 65% of the price |
| Buyer's own money | $663M | 36% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $4.0B | $286M | $89.1M | $18.5M | $1.1B |
| Year 2 | $4.1B | $291M | $87.6M | $19.3M | $1.1B |
| Year 3 | $4.2B | $296M | $86.2M | $20.7M | $1.1B |
| Year 4 | $4.3B | $304M | $84.6M | $22.5M | $1.1B |
| Year 5 | $4.4B | $313M | $82.9M | $24.9M | $1.1B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 5.4× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $1.7B | |
| − Debt left | $1.1B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $639M | |
| Money multiple | 0.96× | on $663M put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −0.7% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $9.97; the IRR reaches 20% at $6.49 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $10.97 | 5.7% |
| 20% | $11.97 | 2.6% |
| 30% | $12.97 | −0.7% |
| 40% | $13.96 | −4.1% |
| 50% | $14.96 | −7.7% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $4.0B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $283M | 7.1% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $180M | |
| Capital spending | $171M | |
| Debt | $768M | |
| Cash | $90.7M | |
| Share price | $9.97 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 1.1% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 12% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Bloomin' Brands would cost about $13.22 a share, $1.1B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $11.97 | $1.0B |
| Median | 32.5% | $13.22 | $1.1B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $15.14 | $1.3B |
The odds, from history
Historically 5.5% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.1× the average). Its figures put it in decile 7 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Bloomin' Brands' latest quarter
Bloomin' Brands, Q3 2026: revenue $944M (+2% year over year), operating margin 2.0%, net loss $1.7M, operating cash flow $6.8M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Bloomin' Brands being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Bloomin' Brands?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($12.97 a share) would return a loss of about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $6.49 a share (−35% against today's $9.97).
What would a takeover of Bloomin' Brands cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Bloomin' Brands would cost about $13.22 a share, $1.1B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.